NORWAY: Q3 Regional Network Survey: "Stable growth prospects"
Norges Bank Q3 Regional Network Survey here
- "The share of contacts in Norges Bank's Regional Network reporting full capacity utilisation is little changed from the previous surveys in 2025. At the same time, slightly more contacts are facing recruitment difficulties".
- "Overall, network contacts expect output growth to remain fairly stable in the period between 2025 Q3 and Q4. Many expect higher household purchasing power to strengthen demand for both goods and services".
"*NORWAY 3Q REGIONAL SURVEY OUTPUT NEXT QUARTER Q/Q 0.4%" BBG
- " Contacts expect somewhat higher investment in 2025 than in 2024 and growth to remain firm in 2026.
- "Contacts expect annual wage growth of 4.5 percent in 2025 and 4.0 percent in 2026. On the whole, profitability among contacts has improved compared with one year ago.
"*NORGES BANK CONTACTS SEE 2025 WAGE GROWTH 4.5% VS 4.5% PREV." BBG
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SONIA OPTIONS: Call spread buyer
SFIU5 96.10/96.25cs, bought for 1 in 1.5k.
GILTS: Initial Support Untested Following UK Labour Market Report
Gilt futures are -25 ticks at 92.01, underperforming Bunds following this morning’s UK labour market report. As noted in earlier bullets, elements of the report were a little stronger-than-expected. However, there are still signs that the labour market is continuing to ease, with pay growth and vacancies falling and most other employment metrics/surveys point to decelerating employment growth in contrast to the LFS series.
- Gilts reached a session low of 91.92 just after the open, leaving initial support at 91.87 (August 8 low) untested.
- This level shields the August 1 low at 91.44, with key support and the bear trigger seen much further out at 91.08 (July 18 low).
- Gilt yields are 2-3bps higher, with the curve lightly bear steepening. The 10-year yield was unable to push through the 4.60% handle at the open. The 10-year Gilt/Bund spread is 3bps wider at 189.5bps.
- The DMO will sell GBP4.75bln of the 4.375% Mar-30 Gilt this morning.
- Otherwise, the domestic calendar is light today. Broader focus remains on this afternoon’s US CPI report.
EQUITIES: Option Expiry on Friday
We have Equity Option expiry this Friday, in Notional terms:
US:
- SPX: $1.29T vs $1.23T (last Friday).
- NDX: $54.97bn vs $52.42bn.
- Amazon: $18.40bn vs $17.48bn.
- Apple: $19.56bn vs $16.75bn.
EU:
- SX5E: €150.77bn vs €148.31bn.
- SX7E: €3.26bn vs €3.15bn.
- DAX: €22.38bn vs €22.13bn.
- UKX: £9.47bn vs £9.56bn.
- Lloyd's: £9.08bn.
