RUSSIA: Putin Set to Speak at Forum; Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate Figures Due
Apr-30 07:37
- President Vladimir Putin is to speak at forum in Moscow, according to Interfax, while the Federal Statistics Service reports weekly inflation and macroeconomic data for March at 17:00BST/19:00 local time.
- Thailand’s Foreign Minister discussed global trade situation with his Chinese and Russian counterparts on the sidelines of a BRICS meeting in Brazil. In the discussions with Russia’s Sergei Lavrov, the Thai Foreign Minister expressed Thailand’s desire for advancing free trade negotiations with the Eurasian Economic Union and enhancing tourism exchanges.
- Russian corporate borrowers raised the equivalent of more than $1.5bln with six foreign currency bond issues from April 10 to 29, Kommersant report. Activity remains high and companies such as gas giant Gazprom and diamond miner Alrosa entered the market for the first time.
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GILTS: Rallying On Wider Risk-Off Flow, Bullish Technical Threat Increases
Mar-31 07:28
Gilts through last week’s highs on the wider risk-off price action stemming from U.S. tariff worry ahead of “Liberation Day”.
- Futures peak at 92.10 before fading back below 92.00, still up the best part of 50 ticks on the day.
- Note that the short-term technical trend in the contract remains bearish, but the bullish threat has increased.
- Initial Fibonacci resistance (92.17) protects trendline resistance drawn off the March 4 high (91.55).
- Yields 2.5-4.0bp lower, 10s outperform on the curve.
- GBP STIRs still around levels we flagged ahead of the gilt open, as most of the early dovish adjustment holds.
- The DMO will hold its consultations regarding FQ1 (April to June) issuance at 15:30BST (investors) and 17:00BST (GEMMs) today.
- We set out our expectations for gilt issuance across FY25/26 in our UK Issuance Deep Dive publication.
- Elsewhere, only lower tier UK economic data is due on Monday, which will leave macro cues at the fore for much of the session.
EFSF ISSUANCE: New 5-year: Guidance
Mar-31 07:25
- EUR Benchmark of the new 5y May-30 MS+32 Area
- Coupon: Annual, act/act, long first
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAT6
- Maturity: May 7, 2030
- Format: Reg S, bearer, 0% rw
- Issuer: European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)
- Bookrunners: Citi, CA-CIB (B&D), SocGen
- Settlement: April 7, 2025
- Timing: May price today.
Details via Bloomberg
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence
Mar-31 07:24
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.548 - High Oct 29 ‘24
- RES 1: $34.501 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $34.355 @ 08:23 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: $33.304 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $32.665 - Low Mar 21
- SUP 3: $32.483/31.814 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
- SUP 4: $30.815 - Low Feb 28 and key support
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and last week’s gains reinforce this condition. The rally resulted in a breach of $34.233, the Mar 18 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a medium-term bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $33.3004, the 20-day EMA.
