RUSSIA: Putin Set To Deliver Address On 'Current International Situation'
Oct-02 14:15
President Vladimir Putin is due to speak at the Valdai Discussion Club's annual meeting in Sochi this afternoon. Livestream here. Putin has spoken at the event in previous years, with a focus on Russian foreign policy aims, and this year is unlikely to prove any different. Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov said, "Obviously, he'll be talking about the current international] situation, its precursors, and possible ways it could develop,"
Putin's address comes as the Kremlin criticises the potential for the US to provide intelligence and long-range missiles to Ukraine to allow Kyiv to strike deep into Russian territory. On 1 Oct, WSJ published an article reporting "The U.S. will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, [...] The U.S. is also weighing deliveries of Tomahawks and Barracudas and other American-made ground- and air-launched missiles that have ranges of around 500 miles".
The Kremlin says that if the US does supply Ukraine with Tomahawks, "then it will mean a new serious round of tension", and Russia will have to give an "adequate response".
As the WSJ article notes, the combination of improved intelligence provision as well as a significant increase in range provided by Tomahawks would "have a far more potent effect than Ukraine’s previous strikes in Russia, causing greater damage to its energy infrastructure and tying up Russian air defenses."
Chart 1. Range Of Western-Made Missiles in Russo-Ukraine Theatre
ECB: Villeroy: Inflation Allows For Favourable Rates (Bloomberg)
Sep-02 14:13
Bloomberg headlines from ECB/Banque de France's Villeroy:
"*ECB'S VILLEROY: INFLATION IS WELL UNDER CONTROL"
"*ECB'S VILLEROY: INFLATION ALLOWS FOR FAVORABLE INTEREST RATES"
"*ECB'S VILLEROY: URGENT TO TACKLE FRENCH DEFICIT, DEBT CHALLENGE"
On the French fiscal situation, a reminder that the Government is targeting a 5.4% deficit in 2025, 4.6% in 2026 and 2.8% by 2029. Last week, Finance Minister Lombard said he was "confident" in the 2026 projection, though but the median analysts (according to Bloomberg) currently projects a 5.4% deficit next year.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Retracement Mode
Sep-02 14:09
RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
RES 3: 6590.30 2.0% 10-dma envelope
RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
RES 1: 6523.00 High Aug 28 and the bull trigger
PRICE: 6411.50 @ 14:59 BST Sep 2
SUP 1: 6383.25/6362.75 Intraday low / Low Aug 20
SUP 2: 6332.30 50-day EMA
SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is - considered corrective. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 6439.95. The key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 6332.30. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 6239.50, the Aug 1 low and also a key support. Moving average studies still highlight a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6523.00, the Aug 28 high.
US TSYS: Post-ISM Data React: Paring Losses
Sep-02 14:06
Treasury futures paring losses after lower than expected ISM Mfg, Prices Paid and Emply data, while New orders surge higher. Construction Spending in-line with expectations.
Tsy Dec'25 10Y futures currently trades -8.5 at 112-07.5 vs. morning low of 111-31. Initial technical resistance above at 112-20.5 (High Aug 28 / 29). Curves mildly mixed: 2s10s +0.811 at 61.776, 5s30s -0.661 122.322.
USD weakness comes alongside the uptick in Treasuries: the ISM print boosts EUR/USD back above 1.1650 and makes for a more than 50 pip recovery off the lows in GBP/USD. GBP still the poorest performer on the day, but GBP/USD is recovering losses toward 1.3445 - the intraday 50% Fib.