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STIR: Over 80% Odds Of Dec BoE Cut Still Priced
Little change in GBP STIRs, with UK weekend news flow focused on well-trodden fiscal areas ahead of Wednesday’s (see recent bullets for more colour on potential tweaks that could come at that event as well as our full preview).
- Friday’s recovery from lows in wider risk assets helped the space back from dovish session extremes.
- BoE-dated OIS shows 21bp of easing for December, 28.5bp through February, 38bp through March, 48bp through April and 53bp through June.
- The recent flow of data has increased odds of/lowered the bar for a December cut. We believe that Governor Bailey is likely to join the dovish camp in December, cementing a rate cut.
- SONIA futures essentially flat across the curve. SFIZ6 trades around the middle of its month-to-date range. SONIA strip-Implied BoE terminal rate at ~3.35%.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Dec-25 | 3.759 | -21.0 |
Feb-26 | 3.683 | -28.6 |
Mar-26 | 3.591 | -37.8 |
Apr-26 | 3.489 | -48.0 |
Jun-26 | 3.441 | -52.8 |
Jul-26 | 3.385 | -58.5 |
Sep-26 | 3.368 | -60.1 |
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 184.34 2.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 3: 183.07 1.764 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 2: 182.96 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
- RES 1: 182.01 High Nov 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 180.59 @ 07:37 GMT Nov 24
- SUP 1: 179.77 Low Nov 21
- SUP 2: 178.87/176.83 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 175.71 Low Nov 5
- SUP 4: 174.82 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low
The trend outlook in EURJPY is unchanged, a firm bull cycle remains intact and last week’s strong gains reinforce the current trend condition. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are 182.96, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support lies at 178.87, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger
- RES 3: 6900.50 High Nov 12
- RES 2: 6735.63/6791.25 20-day EMA / High Nov 20
- RES 1: 6677.50 High Nov 21
- PRICE: 6653.25 @ 07:21 GMT Nov 24
- SUP 1: 6525.00 Low Nov 21
- SUP 2: 6500.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 6476.62 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 uptrend
- SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2
S&P E-Minis remain in a short-term bear-mode condition and weakness last week reinforces current conditions. The breach of 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancels recent bullish signals and signals scope for an extension of the corrective cycle. Sights are on 6540.25 (pierced), the Oct 10 low and a key support. A clear break of it would open 6476.62, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6735.63, the 20-day EMA.
