RUSSIA: Putin-European Elites 'Whipping Up Hysteria' Over Russia Threat
Oct-02 15:53
President Vladimir Putin (well behind schedule) delivering his address to the Valdai Discussion Club annual conference in Sochi. Livestream (with translation) here. In a forceful opening, Putin claims that "ruling elites in Europe are whipping up hysteria, saying war with Russia is near". Putin claims "It's impossible to believe that Russia will attack NATO...All the threats of an aggressive Russia are plucked from the air."
- Asks "Shall we take counter measures to the militarisation of Europe?". Putin: "We are closely watching statements about the strength of the German army...Russia's response will be convincing."
- Putin: "If someone seeks to compete in the military sphere, Russia has proved more than once that we respond fast." Says "Russia should not be provoked," and "weakness is unacceptable".
Russia is maintaining its rhetorical efforts in looking to drive a wedge between US and Europe/Ukraine, with Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov saying earlier that the two sides are not closer to peace after the Alaska summit between Putin and President Trump, and that the "main factor complicating peace is Europe."
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OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Sep-02 15:49
- EUR/USD: Sep04 $1.1600(E1.9bln), $1.1640-50(E1.9bln), $1.1670-75(E1.7bln), $1.1700(E1.1bln), $1.1750(E1.3bln); Sep05 $1.1550(E1.4bln), $1.1600(E2.0bln), $1.1750(E1.0bln), $1.1775-80(E1.1bln), $1.1800(E1.3bln); Sep08 $1.1600(E1.0bln)
- USD/JPY: Sep04 Y147.00-15($1.4bln); Sep05 Y146.00($2.2bln), Y146.95-00($1.2bln), Y147.35-50($1.1bln)
- AUD/USD: Sep05 $0.6500-10(A$1.3bln), $0.6600(A$1.0bln)
- USD/CAD: Sep05 C$1.3850-60($1.0bln)
US STOCKS: Midday Equities Roundup: Chip Stocks Leading Decliners
Sep-02 15:45
- Stocks are trading broadly weaker ahead midday Tuesday, near lows with Information Technology and Communication Services underperforming. Currently, the DJIA trades down 533.49 points (-1.17%) at 45009.39, S&P E-Minis down 94.75 points (-1.46%) at 6377.25, Nasdaq down 387.7 points (-1.8%) at 21066.77.
- Semiconductor makers led decliners in the first half amid skepticism over AI-tied demand over the long run, leading decliners included: Super Micro Computer -4.08%, Adobe -3.92%, ON Semiconductor -3.71%, NXP Semiconductors -3.62%, QUALCOMM -3.35% and NVIDIA Corp -3.04%.
- Next up, interactive media and entertainment shares weighed on the Communication Services sector: Trade Desk -3.06%, Alphabet -2.77%, Warner Bros Discovery-2.62% and Paramount Skydance -2.24%.
- On the positive side, oil and gas stocks buoyed the Energy sector with crude prices rising (WTI +1.27 at 65.28): Texas Pacific Land +2.98%, EQT +1.16%, APA +0.95% and Expand Energy +0.91%.
- Meanwhile, the Consumer Staples sector was buoyed by: Dollar Tree +2.50%, PepsiCo +2.33%, Dollar General +1.45%, Clorox +1.18% and Kroger +0.96%.
FOREX: USD Off Best Levels Following ISM Manufacturing, GBP Weakness Stands Out
Sep-02 15:44
- Tuesday’s session was characterised by a sharp move higher for the US dollar across the European morning. Acute pressure on the longer-end of the UK, US and European yield curves drove risk-off sentiment, echoed by weakness for the major equity benchmarks. The USD index rose as much as 0.9% before stabilising and reversing a small portion of the gains following the ISM manufacturing data release.
- August's ISM Manufacturing report was weaker than expected on the headline figure, with some sub-components telling a slightly more mixed story, and price pressures unexpectedly diminished. This may have led participants to question the outright bullish dollar bias from earlier in the day, especially ahead of the crucial US labour market report on Friday.
- GBP weakness has been most notable Tuesday, with cable remaining 1.2% lower as a window-dressing UK reshuffle (not expected to resolve Starmer's popularity crisis in the near-term) was looked at unfavourably by investors. Cable had a punchy 208 pip range, printing a near 4-week low of 1.3341. Immediate focus will be on trendline support, drawn from the years lows. This level intersects around the 1.33 handle. Below here, 1.3249 is another notable chart level, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg.
- Today’s EURGBP price action has resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. A break of this level would place the cross at the highest level since May 2023.
- The dynamic of widening yield differentials and heightened political uncertainty in Japan underpinned an impressive USDJPY rally to highs of 148.94 ahead of the US data. Fibonacci resistance at 149.12 has held for now, with the late reversal taking the pair back to 148.30 ahead of the APAC crossover.
- Australian Q2 GDP headlines the calendar on Wednesday, before final Eurozone services PMIs and US JOLTS data.
