EU-RUSSIA: Putin-EU Seizing Russian Assets Would Sharply Reduce Confidence In EZ
Nov-27 14:08
In a presser, Russian President Vladimir Putin says that any confiscation of frozen Russian assets held in the EU would be negative for the global financial system, and "sharply reduce confidence in the eurozone." Says that the Russian gov't "is developing a package of response measures" in the event the EU uses the frozen Russian assets, primarily held at Belgium's Euroclear, to fund 'reparations loans' for Ukraine. Says it would amount to a "theft of property."
- Earlier, the FT reported that, according to a letter it has seen, Euroclear "argued that the latest loan plan for Ukraine would be perceived as “confiscation” outside the EU and spook investors in European sovereign debt."
- The letter from Euroclear chief executive Valérie Urbain to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Antonio Costa said, “The resultant risk premium will lead to a sustained increase in European sovereign bond spreads,” adding that the seizure would hinder investment “as investors, [... will perceive this initiative as being equivalent to confiscation of central bank reserves, undermining the rule of law”.
- FT: "Urbain argued that forcing Euroclear to invest in “zero-interest tailored-debt instrument funding” in order to enact the scheme would be seen as confiscation by Russia, leading to retaliation and potential legal challenges that Euroclear should be covered for. “This will lead to compensatory payments by [EU] member states to Euroclear . . . resulting in financial exposure for member states,” Urbain wrote."
- With Belgium showing no signs of movement towards backing reparations loans, the EU is looking at the potential of a bridging loan funded by member states to support Ukraine's fiscal position and war effort in 2026.
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US DATA: "Labor Differential" Stabilizes At Weak Level In October
Oct-28 14:08
While overall consumer confidence fell less than expected in October, most attention in the Conference Board survey is typically on the "labor differential" (jobs "plentiful" minus "hard to get") which takes on additional importance this month given a dearth of official labor market data.
- The differential came in at 9.4 in October, stabilizing after falling to 8.7 in September (rev from 7.8) which marked a post-Feb 2021 low.
- The current reading represents 27.8% seeing jobs as "plentiful" and 18.4% as "hard to get", and the differential is the 2nd lowest since February 2021 after the prior month.
- This is a closely-watched indicator for broader labor market conditions. It's historically correlated with the unemployment rate and having come down from over 22 at the end of last year, this has shown a decisive cooling which points to a continued rise in joblessness. A similar reading in 2017 was consistent with unemployment around 4.8%, vs 4.3% as of August.
FOREX: GBPCAD Testing Below Trendline Support
Oct-28 14:07
- The bullish EURCAD trend remains firmly in place, and the 50-day EMA has provided excellent support since March. Renewed strength for the cross, and a break of cycle highs at 1.64568 would place us at the highest levels since 2009. The 50-day currently intersects at 1.6226.
- In similar vein, CADCHF has been in a solid downtrend this year, falling an impressive 12.44% from the January highs to cycle lows on October 17. Should the bearish CAD trend persist, and EURCHF make a meaningful break below the key medium-term support at 0.9206, there would be focus on further CADCHF declines below the 0.5600.
- Conversely, today’s sterling weakness has prompted GBPCAD to fall to its lowest level since early September, with the cross also testing below trendline support, drawn from the January lows. 1.8405 and 1.8230 are obvious chart targets for the move.
- It’s worth highlighting that last week Nomura entered a long NZDCAD trade, targeting a move to 0.8315 with a stop at 0.7900. They noted that expressing their positive NZD view against another DM commodity currency helps to protect a little against externally-driven volatility and swings in global risk sentiment.
FOREX: USDCAD Dips Remain Corrective as BOC Decision Approaches
Oct-28 14:04
- Despite the headlines last week renewing trade concerns between Canada and the US, there has been little impact on the Canadian dollar, which has remained in consolidation mode against the USD in recent sessions.
- However, the trend condition for the pair remains bullish, with pullbacks considered corrective at this juncture. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position also, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
- A resumption of gains would open 1.4111 (Apr 10 high), which may also coincide with a break of a bullish trend channel. Further out, scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement, and 1.4274, the April 09 high. First key support lies at 1.3914, the 50-day EMA.
- The Bank of Canada is set to cut its policy rate by 25bp for a second consecutive meeting on Wednesday. The new 2.25% overnight rate would represent the bottom of the BOC's "neutral" estimate range (2.25%-3.25%), reflecting an environment in which economic slack has built amid the fallout from the US-Canada trade conflict but with trim/median inflation continuing to run at the high end of the BOC's target band.
- Our full preview of the meeting is here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Preview_Oct2025_3fd6e67850.pdf
