ENERGY: Putin Comments Add Some Bearish Pressure, But Moves Retracing

Nov-27 13:43

RUSSIA-UKRAINE - Energy complex comes under some bearish pressure following Putin’s comments on the Ukraine peace plan, which appear to indicate at least some willingness to continue negotiations ahead of a planned Putin-Witkoff meeting next week. 

  • Putin said that the US peace plan could be a basis for a Ukraine deal. However, it is worth noting that Putin has said some peace plan points ‘require discussion.’
  • Security guarantees, limits on Ukraine’s army and territorial concessions are likely to be key sticking points that could sink a deal.
  • Brent fell ~$0.4/bbl on the comments but failed to reach daily lows and has moved slightly higher since. Volumes are thin amid the US Thanksgiving holiday.
  • TTF fell to around 28.87 EUR/MWh but has since recovered the majority of the loss.
  • Brent JAN 26 down 0.2% at 63.02$/bbl
  • WTI JAN 26 unchanged at 58.65$/bbl
  • TTF DEC 25 down 1.4% at 28.95€/MWh

Historical bullets

SOFR OPTIONS: Large outright Midcurve Call buyer

Oct-28 13:38

2QH6 96.87c, bought for 18 in 20k.

BONDS: MNI Europe Pi: Short Lean Fades Away In October

Oct-28 13:38

We've published our latest Europe Pi bond futures positioning analysis - Download Full Document Here

  • Trade since early October has largely faded what had previously been broadly "short"-leaning structural positioning across European bond futures.
  • Most contracts are now structurally "flat", with BTP and Gilt notable exceptions.
  • Trade in the latest week was mixed but indicative of less of a long bias, with longs reduced and shorts set across most contracts.
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Updated Oct 28, 2025 based on OI/price data through Oct 27, 2025. MNI Pi provides an estimate of fast money positioning in futures. Calculations are for guidance only, and are not trade recommendations in any way. Source: Eurex, ICE, Bloomberg Finance L.P., MNI Calculations

SONIA OPTIONS: Call Spread buyer

Oct-28 13:27

SFIH6 96.90/97.00cs, bought for 0.75 in 1.5k.