GOLD: Pushing Towards New High After Israeli Airstrike On Iran
Jun-13 04:20
Gold is 1.3% higher at 3428 in today’s Asia-Pac session, with risk off following Israel's strike on Iran fuelling bullion demand.
- Netanyahu said that this was a decisive moment in Israel's history and added that the military operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove the threat. It is targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile factories and military capabilities (per RTRS/BBG).
- It is also targeting Iran's main enrichment facility in Natanz, along with nuclear scientists working on the nuclear bomb program, Netanyahu added.
- Earlier remarks from US Secretary of State Rubio stated that Israel took unilateral action against Iran and that the US was not involved in the strikes. Rubio stated that Iran should not target US interests or personnel in the region (per BBG).
- According to MNI’s technicals team, suggests the following as upside levels to be mindful of: RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger / RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing / RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSYS: Cash Bonds Little Changed After Yesterday's Tame CPI
May-14 04:19
TYM5 is dealing at 110-04, +0-05 from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.
- According to MNI’s technicals team, Treasury futures maintain a softer tone following recent weakness. Support at 110-01+, a Fibonacci retracement point, has been broken. Clearance here strengthens a bearish theme and exposes a key support at 109-08, the Apr 24 low. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 111-22, the May 7 high. A break of this level is required to signal a potential reversal.
- There has been no net movement in cash US tsys in today's Asia-Pac session after being little changed yesterday following the tame April CPI report.
- The 10-year yield range seems to be 4.10% - 4.50%, with the yield currently testing the upper bound of this range. A sustained break above this level would see another round of selling targeting the 4.75% area.
- Data: US MBA Mortgage Applications
STIR: RBNZ Dated OIS Pricing Firms Since CPI But Much Less Than AUS
May-14 03:42
RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps firmer across meetings today, leaving rates 2–14bps above levels seen prior to the Q1 CPI release on April 17.
- Q1 New Zealand CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.9% q/q, lifting the annual rate to 2.5% from 2.2% in Q4. Both tradeables and non-tradeables components contributed to the upside surprise.
- However, the RBNZ’s preferred measure of underlying inflation—the sectoral factor model—edged lower to 2.9% in Q1, down from a downwardly revised 3.0% in Q4. This marks the lowest print since Q2 2021 and places core inflation just under the top of the RBNZ’s 1–3% target band.
- In Australia, Q1 headline and underlying CPI exceeded expectations by 0.1pp, although the trimmed mean slowed to 2.9% y/y, falling within the RBA’s target band for the first time since Q4 2021.
- For comparison, RBA-dated OIS pricing is now 4–40bps firmer than pre-Q1 CPI levels recorded on April 30.
Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Current vs. Pre-CPI Levels (%)
Source: MNI - Market News / Bloomberg
CHINA: Bond Futures Lower in Morning Trade
May-14 03:04
- China's bond futures are all lower in morning trading.
- The 10YR future is lower by -0.10 at 108.56 and has breached the 50-day EMA of 108.59. The next key level below is the 100-day EMA of 108.32.
- The 2YR future is lower by -0.05 at 102.46 and remains firmly below all major moving averages. The nearest being the 20-day EMA at 102.46.
- CGB bond yields are stable with the CGB 10YR at 1.66%
