GBPUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.3605 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22 
• RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 1: 1.3402/3444 High May 6 / High Apr 28 / 29 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.3210 @ 16:28 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 1.3140 Low May 12   
• SUP 2: 1.3083 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3041 Low Apr 14  
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

GBPUSD has started this week’s session on a bearish note as the pair extends the correction that started Apr 29. The 20- day EMA has been breached. Furthermore, a minor head and shoulders formation on the daily chart reinforces the likelihood of a corrective pullback near-term. Key support to watch is 1.3083, the 50-day EMA. The bull trigger has been defined at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. A break would resume the uptrend. 

• We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US CPI Preview.
• Please find the full report including MNI analysis and a breakdown of detailed analyst forecasts here: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_May2025_7caf3ac611.pdf

Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

• RXN5 133.50c, bought for 14.5 in 4k
• ERM5 97.875/98.00/98.125/98.25 call condor, sold out at 7.25 in 8k (continuing closing out from prior sessions)
• ERU5 98.125/98.1875/98.3125/98.375 condor vs 97.9375/97.8125 put spread, paper sells for 0.25 in 9k (sells the condor)
• ERU5 98.50/98.37/98.25/98.00p condor sold at -1.75 and -2 (receive) in 16.5k
• ERZ5 98.50/98.25ps 1x2 bought the 1 for 1 in 20k
• ERH6 99.12/99.37cs, bought for 1.25 in 10k