EURGBP TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

Aug-15 05:24
  • RES 4: 0.8715 High Dec 28
  • RES 3: 0.8677 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 ‘23 - Jul 17 bear leg
  • RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: 0.8625 High Aug 8 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 0.8574 @ 06:22 BST Aug 15
  • SUP 1: 0.8531 Low Aug 13
  • SUP 2: 0.8514 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 0.8492 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 0.8418 Low Aug 1

EURGBP maintains a bullish tone and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent impulsive gains resulted in the break of a number of key resistance points, cancelling a bearish theme and highlighting potential for 0.8645, the Apr 23 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8492, the 50-day EMA. First support is 0.8531, the Aug 13 low. A retracement is allowing an overbought condition to unwind.

Historical bullets

LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Jul-16 05:23
Date UK Period Event
17-Jul 0700 June CPI / PPI
17-Jul 1130 - King's Speech
18-Jul 0700 May/June Labour Market Survey
19-Jul 0001 July Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
19-Jul 0700 June Retail Sales / Public Sector Finances
24-Jul 0001 July Brightmine pay deals for whole economy
24-Jul 0930 July S&P Global Flash PMIs
25-Jul 1100 July CBI Industrial Trends
29-Jul 0930 June BOE M4
29-Jul 0930 June BOE Lending to Individuals
29-Jul 1100 July CBI Distributive Trades
30-Jul 0001 July BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
01-Aug 0930 July S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI
01-Aug 1200 - Bank Of England Interest Rate
01-Aug 1230 - BoE Press Conference
05-Aug 0930 July S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services/Composite PMI

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Bullish Short-Term Structure

Jul-16 05:22
  • RES 4: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 105.837 61.8% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 5 bear leg
  • RES 2: 105.805 High Jun 26
  • RES 1: 105.752 61.8% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 5 bear leg
  • PRICE: 105.715 @ 06:02 BST Jul 16
  • SUP 1: 105.495/390 Low Jul 11 / 5
  • SUP 2: 105.314 76.4% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle
  • SUP 3: 105.175 Low Jun 7
  • SUP 4: 105.110 Low May 24 and the bear trigger

Schatz futures traded higher last week, signalling scope for an extension towards 105.752 and 105.837, Fibonacci retracement points. A break of 105.837 would strengthen a bullish theme and expose 105.975, the Jun 14 high and a key resistance. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on key short-term support at 105.390, the Jul 5 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme.

LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Jul-16 05:18
Date Time (BST) Country Event
16-Jul 800 EU ECB's De Guindos in ECONFIN meeting
16-Jul 900 EU ECB Bank Lending Survey
16-Jul 900 IT Italy Final HICP
16-Jul 1000 DE ZEW Index
16-Jul 1000 EU Trade Balance
17-Jul 1000 EU HICP (f)
18-Jul 1000 EU Construction Production
18-Jul 1315 EU ECB Governing Council Meeting
18-Jul 1345 EU ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference
18-Jul 1515 EU Lagarde presents MonPol decision on podcast
19-Jul 700 DE PPI
19-Jul 900 EU EZ Current Account
23-Jul 800 EU ECB's Lane at ECB/IMF conference in Frankfurt
23-Jul 1500 EU Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)