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Norwegian July inflation is due at 0700BST/0800CET. It is the last major macro datapoint before Norges Bank’s August 14 decision (Thursday), but is not expected to shift firm expectations for a hold at 4.25%. Instead, the July report will add to the stock of data ahead of the September decision, where markets expect a 25bp to 4.00% to be delivered. 

• Norges Bank projects CPI-ATE inflation to grow at a 3.1% Y/Y in each month through to September, with the June reading having come in line with expectations last month. Bloomberg consensus instead expects a 3.0% Y/Y CPI-ATE print in July.
• As has been the case through this year, food inflation adds a source of uncertainty to the July print. There is some uncertainty within the analyst previews we have seen as to whether annual inflation will tick up or down in July. Grocery prices have historically been adjusted twice a year (February and July), but this trend has broken down somewhat since the pandemic.
• Headline inflation is also expected at 3.0% Y/Y, slightly below Norges Bank’s 3.1% forecast. Analysts point to a downward contribution to the annual rate from electricity prices in July, though we note that the four forecasts submitted to Bloomberg have quite a wide range of 2.7% Y/Y to 3.3% Y/Y.
• See below for a selection of analyst comments ahead of the release:

Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Belgium are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E22.3bln in first round operations, down from E28.1bln last week.

• This morning, Germany will look to sell E1.5bln of the 11-month Jul 15, 2026 Bubill.
• This afternoon, France will look to issue up to E7.2bln of 13/18/26/52-week BTFs: E2.6-3.0bln of the 13-week Nov 12, 2025 BTF, E0.0-0.4bln of the 18-week Dec 17, 2025 BTF, E1.4-1.8bln of the 26-week Feb 11, 2026 BTF and E1.6-2.0bln of the new 52-week Aug 12, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow morning, Spain will look to come to the market with the 3-month Nov 7, 2025 letras and the 9-month May 8, 2026 letras. The auction size will be announced today.
• Also tomorrow morning, Italy  will look to sell E8bln of the new 12-month Aug 14, 2026 BOT.
• Finally tomorrow, Belgium will look to issue E2.8-3.2bln of the Nov 13, 2025 TC.

We look at potential tweaks to the RBA’s communication methos -- on MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com