EM CREDIT SUPPLY: PT Pertamina Persero (PERTIJ, Baa2/BBB/BBB) - FV Estimate
"*IPT: PERTAMINA HULU ENERGI $BMRK SNR 144A/REGS 5Y AT 5.550% A" - BBG
New: $Benchmark 5y
IPT: 5.55% area (z+175bp)
FV: 5.1% (z+135bp, T+100bp)
• Indonesian state-owned oil & gas company Pertamina Persero, now held by Indonesian sovereign wealth fund Danantara, is coming with a $ benchmark 5y deal. The issuer is its wholly owned subsidiary, PT Pertamina Hulu Energi (PERHUL), which focuses on oil & gas exploration and production.
• In assessing the fair value for the 5y deal, we reference existing holding company bonds from Pertamina Persero and assume there is little upside to similarly rated Pertamina Hulu Energi as OpCo. We also benchmark against the ultimate owner, the Indonesia government.
• We see fair value for the 5y at z+135bp (T+100bp) for a yield of 5.1%.
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ASIA STOCKS: Outflows Continue Despite Inflow for Taiwan
Relatively constant outflows mixed with the odd meaningful inflow continues to be the thematic we see as we watch the equity flows across the major markets.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$467m as of Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$2,948m. 2025 to date flows are -$11,478, m. The 5-day average is -$590m, the 20-day average is -$296m and the 100-day average of -$152m.
- Taiwan: Had inflows of +$1,022m as of Friday, with total inflows of +$530m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$17,717. The 5-day average is +$106m, the 20-day average of -$252m and the 100-day average of -$243m.
- India: Had outflows of -$518m as of the 9th, with total outflows of -$2,815m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative -$16,476m. The 5-day average is -$563m, the 20-day average of -$44m and the 100-day average of -$150m.
- Indonesia: Had outflows of -$13m as of Friday, with total inflows of -$313m over the prior five days. YTD flows are negative -$2,180m. The 5-day average is -$63m, the 20-day average -$43m and the 100-day average -$35m
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$34m as of Friday, outflows totaling -$250m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,396m. The 5-day average is -$50m, the 20-day average of -$25m the 100-day average of -$18m.
- Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$27m as of yesterday, totaling -$440m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,778m. The 5-day average is -$88m, the 20-day average of -$60m the 100-day average of -$40m.
- Philippines: Saw inflows of +$1m as of Friday, with net outflows of -$78m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$294m. The 5-day average is -$16m, the 20-day average of -$3m the 100-day average of -$6m.
CHINA PRESS: PBOC To Cut RRR, Rates Timely
The People’s Bank of China will likely cut the reserve requirement ratio or interest rates in a timely manner should U.S. tariff hikes cause negative impact on the economy, said Yu Yongding, a former PBOC monetary policy committee member. The PBOC will also likely increase liquidity injections via open market operations or purchase newly issued government bonds in the secondary market to support expansionary fiscal policy, said Yu. The PBOC may even need to directly intervene in the capital and property markets if volatilty triggers systemic financial and economic risks, said Yu. (Source: Shanghai Securities News)
CHINA PRESS: China Sees Credit Demand Recovering
Recovered corporate credit demand amid rising manufacturing PMI and accelerating infrastructure construction supported March's better-than-expected growth in new yuan loans, 21st Century Business Herald reported citing analysts. Residential housing mortgages also grew rapidly, as the transactions of new and established houses in many cities increased significantly, the newspaper said, adding that early repayment has eased following the reduction in outstanding housing mortgage rates. Banks extended CNY3.64 trillion in new loans in March, up from February's CNY1.01 trillion.
