REAL ESTATE: Property moves since Oct 1st
• The 10yr Bund reached 2.03% on 1st Oct. This marked a recent high for many real estate equity prices
• LEGGR has been the worst performer with a 32% drop since then, Bonds are 19bps tighter vs a sector average of 31bps tightening
• HEIBOS -93bps and SATOYH -84bps have outperformed
| Ticker | Equity Drop | Spread Move |
| LEGGR | -32% | -19bps |
| BALDER | -31% | -47bps |
| SAGAX | -28% | -23bps |
| CASTSS | -27% | -45bps |
| ANNGR | -25% | -30bps |
| GYCGR | -25% | -61bps |
| HMSOLN | -24% | -41bps |
| CITCON | -23% | -12bps |
| ICADFP | -21% | -24bps |
| SGROLN | -21% | -28bps |
| Sector Ave | -31bps |
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STIR: Further SOFR Steepener Flow
Further steepener interest in SOFR futures seen in pre-NY trade:
- SFRU5/H6 paper paid -21.0 on 6K.
- SFRZ5/Z6 paper paid -12.5 on 3K.
MNI: ITALY FEB MANUF PMI 47.4 (FCST: 46.7); JAN 46.3
- MNI: ITALY FEB MANUF PMI 47.4 (FCST: 46.7); JAN 46.3
SWEDEN: Riksbank Business Survey Provides Less Optimistic Signals Than Hard Data
An initial glance at the executive summary of the Riksbank's Business Survey provides less optimistic signals than recent hard data (e.g. last week’s Q4 GDP report). The survey will need to be viewed alongside the weak consumer confidence reading in last week’s Economic Tendency Indicator, but also recent increases in inflationary pressures (both spot CPI/PPI inflation and expected price metrics).
- Although this morning’s manufacturing PMI was solid, the Riksbank will pay much more attention to its own survey in calibrating policy.
- We don’t think the survey is enough to shift consensus away from a hold in rates in March, but underscores our view that the risks are tilted towards one more cut in Q2.
- EURSEK and NOKSEK have moved away from session lows at typing (the latter also supported by this morning’s reversal in European natural gas prices).
Key notes from the summary:
- “Economic activity is weak in most parts of the economy and largely unchanged compared with the previous survey”.
- “Companies believe that the situation will be marginally better in six months' time, but it is expected to take longer than that for there to be a tangible improvement”.
- “Companies are still waiting for interest rate cuts and real wage increases to boost consumption. "At some point, consumers will start shopping", says a representative of the retail trade sector”.
- “The majority of companies estimate that they will be affected to a small extent if the United States introduces import tariffs”.
- “They also consider it difficult to predict the consequences, because there is so much uncertainty about how the tariffs might be designed”.
