OIL: Progress Stalled on Iraq/KRG Flow Restart: MEES
Mar-14 15:21
There has been no further progress on restarting Kurdish flows via the Ceyhan pipeline, MEES said.
- Government officials from Iraq’s Federal oil ministry and the Kurdistan regional government met twice this week with hopes of reaching a resolution to major disagreements blocking exports from Kurdistan to Turkey’s seaport.
- Iraq’s parliament passed an amendment to the country’s budget increasing an envisaged per-barrel fee for handing over oil production from $6.90/b to $16/, MEES added.
- This allowed talks to accelerate, which included representatives for IOCs operating in Kurdistan for the first time.
- The two governments formed two committees. The first covers production costs and Kurish oilfields; another will determine export and domestic volumes, agreeing a mutually acceptable payment mechanism.
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OPTIONS: Expiries for Feb13 NY Cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Feb-12 15:14
- EUR/USD: $1.0300-15(E896mln), $1.0375(E1.2bln), $1.0400(E1.3bln), $1.0500(E1.9bln)
Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Feb14 $1.0200(E1.6bln), $1.0220-25(E1.5bln), $1.0275-80(E1.9bln), $1.0300-20(E4.5bln), $1.0325(E1.6bln), $1.0400(E3.8bln), $1.0435(E1.0bln), $1.0475(E1.5bln), $1.0500(E1.4bln); Feb17 $1.0500(E2.3bln); Feb18 $1.0300(E1.7bln)
- USD/JPY: Feb14 Y150.00($1.9bln), Y150.90-00($1.6bln), Y152.00($2.3bln), Y154.00($1.2bln), Y156.00($1.7bln)
- EUR/JPY: Feb14 Y157.65(E1.7bln)
- GBP/USD: Feb14 $1.2080-00(Gbp1.2bln)
- AUD/USD: Feb14 $0.6200(A$1.2bln), $0.6275-00(A$1.3bln)
- USD/CAD: Feb14 C$1.4450($1.1bln), C$1.4600($1.1bln), C$1.4800($2.1bln)
- USD/CNY: Feb14 Cny7.1500($3.3bln), Cny7.2000($2.6bln), Cny7.3000($2.2bln), Cny7.3400($2.4bln)
USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
Feb-12 15:11
- RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 156.75 High Jan 23
- RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 1: 154.51/53 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance / Intraday high
- PRICE: 154.47 @ 15:10 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 152.38/150.93 Intraday low / Low Feb 07
- SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9
- SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDJPY is trading higher today as it extends the recovery from the Feb 7 low. For now, the move higher appears to be a correction and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 154.51, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear breach of it would highlight a stronger reversal of the Jan 10 - Feb 7 bear leg. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. Key support and bear trigger is 150.93, the Feb 7 low.
STIR: EUR Rates Partially Retrace Hawkish US CPI Reaction
Feb-12 15:10
EUR rates have parially reversed the hawkish reaction spurred by the firmer-than-expected US CPI report.
- ERZ5 is currently -6.0 ticks on the session at 97.985, still below the 98.010 seen pre-US data but above the 97.955 post-data low. More generally, the strip is -2.5 to -6.5 ticks through the blues.
- ECB-dated OIS price 78bps of easing through year-end (vs 83bps at yesterday’s close and a post-data hawkish extreme of 75bps).
- Regional focus turns to Bundesbank President Nagel’s speech on neutral rates at 1700GMT. Nagel is generally considered a hawkish member of the Governing Council, so his view of neutral may lie towards the upper end of the ECB’s latest (heavily caveated) 1.75-2.25% range.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.424 | -24.0 |
| Apr-25 | 2.260 | -40.4 |
| Jun-25 | 2.086 | -57.9 |
| Jul-25 | 2.020 | -64.4 |
| Sep-25 | 1.942 | -72.2 |
| Oct-25 | 1.921 | -74.3 |
| Dec-25 | 1.884 | -78.0 |
| Feb-26 | 1.888 | -77.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
