US DATA: Productivity Gains Keep Lid On Labor-Based Inflation Pressures
Sep-04 13:08
Productivity looked a little better in the second quarter after the initial readings were revised: productivity is now recorded as growing 3.3% Q/Q SAAR, up from 2.4% in the initial. Prior (Q1) was unrevised at -1.8%.
- And Unit Labor Costs were revised down for Q2 in the second reading (1.0% Q/Q SAAR) from the initial reading (1.6%). Again, prior (Q1) was unrevised (6.9%). That's despite an uptick in hourly compensation growth (4.3% vs 4.0% in initial). Overall hourly compensation and wages hit the fastest rate of growth since Q1 2024 but this was offset by the productivity gains.
- Hours worked were revised down to 1.1% from 1.3%, but output growth actually increased vs the previous estimate, at 4.4% (3.7% initial).
- An upgrade in output was implied by last week's upward Q2 GDP revisions, so wasn't a surprise, but the rise was 0.6pp above-expected, with ULCs growth 0.2pp lower than expected.
- ULCs are rising in the 2.0-2.5% Q/Q SAAR range over the last 4 quarters with productivity in the 1.5% range on average.
- Wage growth is probably running a little on the hotter side for comfort in reaching the 2% inflation target on that basis, but the latest quarter's productivity readings and upward revisions thereto will help assuage concerns that the labor market is a source of inflationary pressures.
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CANADA DATA: Canada's June Trade Deficit Widens to CAD5.9B
Aug-05 13:06
- Canada June trade balance widened to -5.9B after -CAD5.5B in May .
- Exports rose for the second straight month driven by energy +0.9% MOM in June following +2.0% in May. Imports +1.4% MOM, first increase in four months due to a one-time high value shipment of industrial machinery and equipment.
- Trade surplus with the U.S. widened to +CAD3.9B in June from +CAD3.6B in May. Excluding the U.S., trade deficit widened to -CAD9.8B in June from -CAD9.1B in May.
- Q2 exports -12.8% QOQ while imports -3.9%. Q2 exports -5.4% YOY.
- May trade deficit revised to -CAD5.5B from -CAD5.9B.
FED: Trump: "Kevins" And Others Are In Running For Chair
Aug-05 12:57
Pres Trump on CNBC refers to previously-mentioned Kevins - NEC director Hassett and ex-Fed Gov Warsh - as candidates to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, saying there's also "other" candidates in the running ("both Kevins are very good, and there are other people that are very good too.")
- However, he also says that one of the previous administrations officials considered to be a candidate, Treasury Secretary Bessent, removed himself from consideration for the role.
- When current Gov Waller's name was brought up among other candidates, Trump did not have anything specific to say about him.
- Bessent and Waller are/were arguably the most "orthodox" choices for the role among the short-list of assumed favorites.
- Warsh remains the perceived favorite though Trump's mention of Hassett appears to improve his standing. Waller is a slight outsider in terms of the odds.
- Trump also said that the next Fed Chair could possibly also be the person who replaces Gov Kugler who resigned last week before the end of her term in January.
MNI: US REDBOOK: JUL STORE SALES +5.4% V YR AGO MO
Aug-05 12:55
- MNI: US REDBOOK: JUL STORE SALES +5.4% V YR AGO MO
- US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +6.5% WK ENDED AUG 02 V YR AGO WK
