FED: Primary Dealers Push Back On SRF Usage - Bloomberg

Nov-19 11:18

Bloomberg reports that primary dealers pushed back against Fed officials urging them to use a key borrowing facility at a meeting last week, complicating efforts to ease strains in the $12 trillion market for repurchase agreements. See the full report here

  • They told the officials “that borrowing directly from the central bank still carries a stigma and could be seen as a sign of trouble. That’s one reason they’ve been reluctant to use the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), according to people familiar with the discussion, who asked for anonymity to discuss details of private conversations.”
  • “Others pointed to operational and balance-sheet constraints that made it difficult to access the facility, which was set up by the Federal Reserve in 2021 to serve as a backstop in money markets."  
  • The use of the facility has been rising although is off last month’s post-2020 highs on month-end pressures.
  • NY Fed’s Williams said last week that the SRF “is best thought of as a way of making sure that the overall market has adequate liquidity consistent with the FOMC’s desired level of interest rates.” He added that “Like the ON RRP facility, the SRF’s effectiveness relies on market participants availing themselves of the SRF based on market conditions, free of worries about stigma or other impediments. I fully expect that the SRF will continue to be actively used in this way and contain upward pressures on money market rates.”
  • As we noted at the time, SOMA Manager Perli also said re the decision to end QT that "Considered together, higher money market rates, increased SRF usage, and shifting reserve ampleness indicators are strong evidence that reserves are no longer abundant", though he also said "the estimated elasticity of the demand curve for reserves has thus far remained stable."

Historical bullets

UK: MNI Gilt Week Ahead: Another huge data week to come

Oct-20 11:18

Full MNI Gilt Week Ahead here.

  • It will be another busy week for UK data next week with fiscal data due for release on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday and retail sales and flash PMI data due on Friday. Note that these will be the last releases of these data to be included in both the November MPR and the OBR's forecasts for the Budget.
  • We look at the weekend's fiscal news and the impact on CPI that different changes to energy taxation could have.
  • We also look back at last week's main MPC comments and ahead to this week.
  • The full document also includes supply previews for the week ahead, balance sheet and repo operations trackers, a UK-focused calendar and a summary of gilt operations and the DMO's issuance plans.

EGB OPTIONS: Bund downside Put Spread

Oct-20 10:57

RXF6 129.00/127.50ps, bought for 33 in 2k.

OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In Oil Futures Intact

Oct-20 10:53
  • On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4400.00 handle next, and $4404.9, a 3.500 projection of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing. Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A move down - a correction - and would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Support to watch lies at $3986.3, 20-day EMA.
  • A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move down last week reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on $54.89 next, the May 5 low, where a break would open $54.10, the Apr 9 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at $61.93, the 50-day EMA.