OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Gains Considered Corrective
Jul-18 10:25
- On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged. A bull cycle that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains - for now. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would expose $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, and $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. First support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.
- In the oil space, a bearish tone in WTI remains intact and gains are considered corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.61. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to monitor is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Large Call Spread Buyer, Looking for Cuts
Jun-18 10:22
- ERX5 98.5625/98.625cs, bought for half in 34.8k.
This covers the Next 3 ECB meetings, expiry is the 14th November, looking for cuts.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: FOMC, House Starts/Permits, Jobless Claims
Jun-18 10:18
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 18-Jun 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (12.5%, --)
- 18-Jun 0830 Housing Starts (1.361M, 1.350M), MoM (1.6%, -0.8%)
- 18-Jun 0830 Building Permits (1.422M, 1.422M), MoM (-4.0%, 0.0%)
- 18-Jun 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (248k, 245k)
- 18-Jun 0830 Continuing Claims (1.956M, 1.941M)
- 18-Jun 1130 US Tsy $65B 4W & $55B 8W bill auctions
- 18-Jun 1300 US Tsy $60B 17W bill auction
- 18-Jun 1400 FOMC rate annc
- 18-Jun 1600 Net Long-term TIC Flows ($161.8B, --)
- 18-Jun 1600 Total Net TIC Flows ($254.3B, --)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
- Note: Cash Treasury and stock exchanges are closed Thursday for Juneteenth holiday, along with open outcry pits in Chicago but equity and debt futures will be open for an abbreviated trading session.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Resistance Is Intact For Now
Jun-18 10:11
- RES 4: 111-30 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 3: 111-21 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 111-14+ High Jun 5 & 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 1: 111-13 High Jun 13
- PRICE: 110-28+ @ 11:01 BST Jun 18
- SUP 1: 110-10+/109-28 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 6 / 11
- SUP 2: 109-12+ Low May 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 108-25+ 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 11 - May 1 price swing
Key resistance in Treasury futures at 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high, remains intact for now. Clearance of this hurdle would be bullish and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 111-30, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 109-28, the Jun 6 / 11 low. A breach of this level would be bearish and open the bear trigger at 109-12+, the May 22 low.
