OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Downtrend Remains Intact
May-08 10:42
- On the commodity front, Gold has recovered from its recent lows. The rally suggests the correction between Apr 22 - May 1, is over. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at $3202.0, the May 1 low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- In the oil space, a downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move down that started Apr 23 signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. That cycle higher allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Attention is on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $53.72, a 2.236 projection of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Key resistance to watch is $63.88, the 50-day EMA.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In Oil Remains Intact
Apr-08 10:41
- On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the latest pull back appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. The next key support to watch lies at 2945.3, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3196.2, a 3.236 projection of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing. The bull trigger is 3167.8, the Apr 3 high.
- In the oil space, a bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact following the recent impulsive sell-off. The move down has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels. The break reinforces a bearish threat and, despite the trend being in oversold territory, signals scope for a continuation of the bear leg. Sights are on $57.79 next, a 2.236 proectionj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing. Initial resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Monitoring Support In GBPUSD
Apr-08 10:29
- In FX, EURUSD has pulled back from its latest high. For now, the trend condition remains bullish and a move down is considered corrective. A key resistance at 1.0955, the Mar 18 high, was breached last week, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. It paves the way for a climb towards 1.1188 next, a 0.764 projection of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.0833, the 20-day EMA.
- GBPUSD traded sharply lower Monday, extending the retracement from the Apr 3 high. For now, the sell-off appears corrective. Price has traded below the 50-day EMA - a concern for bulls - however, MA studies are in a bull mode position and this highlights a dominant uptrend. A recovery would open 1.2899 and 1.3017, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement of the Apr 3 - 7 sell-off . A move through Monday's 1.2709 low, would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 1.2654 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 3 bull cycle.
- USDJPY maintains a bearish tone following last week’s sharp sell-off and the latest recovery is - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the downtrend and a break of last Friday’s 144.56 low would signal scope for an extension towards 144.13, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. Initial firm resistance to watch is 149.00, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 150.33.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: SF Fed Daly Outlook, Tsy 3Y Note Auction
Apr-08 10:25
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 08-Apr 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism -- reported 97.4 vs. 100.7 prior
- 08-Apr 1130 US Tsy $70B 6W Bill auction
- 08-Apr 1300 US Tsy $58B 3Y Note auction (91282CMW8)
- 08-Apr 1400 SF Fed Daly economic outlook
