OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Clears A Key Resistance
Jan-29 12:00
* On the commodity front, the primary uptrend in Gold remains intact and another fresh cycle high ...
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Pullback In Gold Appears Corrective
Dec-30 11:56
- On the commodity front, the trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and a sharp sell-off yesterday appears corrective - for now. The trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. First support to watch is $4323.3, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would expose the 50-day EMA at $4177.0. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open $4578.3, a 1.618 projection of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing.
- The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and gains are considered corrective - for now. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A key support and the bear trigger at $56.11, the Oct 17 low, has recently been breached. The break highlights a continuation of the downtrend and opens $53.77, a 1.764 projection of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing. Key S/T resistance is $61.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $58.59, the 50- day EMA.
US TSY FUTURES: OI Data Points To Meaningful Net Long Setting On Monday
Dec-30 11:49
OI data points to pretty meaningful net long setting in Tsy futures in curve-wide terms on Monday, with over $16.5mln of fresh DV01 exposure added.
- Some may link this to anticipation of month-/quarter-/year-end rebalancing flow, although we note that month-end extension estimates are not particularly large. We will check to see if there is an error/secondary OI update later today.
- The biggest DV01 shifts came in the wings of the curve (TU, US & WN).
| 29-Dec-25 | 26-Dec-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,589,162 | 4,438,175 | +150,987 | +5,897,005 |
FV | 6,728,756 | 6,697,750 | +31,006 | +1,365,073 |
TY | 5,525,417 | 5,512,209 | +13,208 | +886,113 |
UXY | 2,527,808 | 2,520,094 | +7,714 | +699,048 |
US | 1,841,646 | 1,808,778 | +32,868 | +4,583,109 |
WN | 2,088,140 | 2,070,256 | +17,884 | +3,257,481 |
|
| Total | +253,667 | +16,687,830 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Trend Structure Remains Bullish
Dec-30 11:47
- In FX, the trend in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. The first important support lies at 1.1721, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance at 1.1804, the Dec 16 high, has been pierced. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
- The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and recent gains reinforce current conditions. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3557, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg. Firm support lies at 1.3343, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at 1.3403.
- The trend structure in USDJPY is bullish and the latest pullback - for now - appears corrective. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Attention is on 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Support to watch lies at 154.71, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper correction.
