LATAM FX: Price Signal Summary - USDMXN Is Trading Below Resistance
- USDMXN has pulled back from its recent highs. The trend condition is unchanged, the structure remains bullish. However, attention remains on the Nov 6 pullback and the follow through on Nov 7. This continues to highlight a possible short-term top and therefore a bearish threat. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA, exposing support at the 50-day EMA, at 20.0456. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA, would undermine the bullish theme and signal potential for a deeper retracement towards 19.7618 initially, the Nov 7 low. Resistance to watch is at 20.8313, the Nov 26 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and cancel any bearish threat. This would open the 21.00 handle.
- The USDBRL bull cycle remains in play and the pair is trading just below its recent highs. The latest rally confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and a breach of resistance at 5.8750, the Nov 1 high. Sights are on 6.1460 and 6.1831, the 2.3820 and 2.50 projection points of the Aug 19 - 30 - Sep 19 price swing. Support levels to watch are; 5.9073, the 20-day EMA, and 5.7754, the 50-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in USDCLP remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Resistance at 966.61, the Aug 5 high and a key short-term hurdle for bulls, has recently been breached. This opens 990.67, the Feb 26 high, ahead of the psychological 1000.00 handle. The 20-day EMA has been pierced.The next support is 959.44, the 50-day EMA.
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JGB TECHS: (Z4) Bounce Reverses
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- PRICE: 143.70 @ 16:14 GMT Nov 08
- SUP 1: 143.39 - Low Nov 07
- SUP 2: 142.23 - Low Jul 02
- SUP 3: 140.21 - 1.236 proj of Mar 22 - Nov 1 ‘23 - Jan 15 price swing
Prices fell further Thursday, extending the recent pullback. The return lower at the start of this week has culminated in a break of 143.57, marking both the Jul 17 high on the continuation contract as well as the Oct 22 low. For now, the 50-dma tops out at 144.32, and marks first resistance. A continuation higher would open 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont) and a bull trigger.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Late 2Y/10Y Ultra-Bond Flattener
- Flattener crossed late Friday at 1645:30ET, DV01 $322,000
- -8,900 TUZ4 102-23.88, sell through 102-24.38 post time bid vs.
- +3,700 UXYZ4 113-16, post time offer
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.4179 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
- PRICE: 1.3910 @ 16:29 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 1.3836/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 1.3744 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
USDCAD reversed course Wednesday and recovered from Tuesday's low. The trend outlook is unchanged, it remains bullish. Attention is the key resistance at 1.3946, the Aug 5 high. This hurdle has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high and a key medium-term resistance point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3836, the 20-day EMA.
