LATAM FX: Price Signal Summary – USDMXN Bear Trend Remains Intact
Dec-24 14:42
- The trend needle in USDMXN continues to point south. Fresh cycle lows this week confirm a continuation of the downtrend and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The 18.000 handle has been pierced, as well as 17.8881, the Jul 22 ‘24 low. A clear break of the latter would pave the way for an extension towards 17.6067, the Jul 12 ‘24 low. Initial resistance to watch is 18.0968, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is at 18.2554, the 50-day EMA.
- The trend condition in USDCLP remains bearish and a fresh cycle low recently reinforces the bearish theme. Scope is seen for a move towards 900.00, a psychological level, ahead of 891.28, the Sep 27 ’24 low, and 881.73, the May 20 ’24 low and a key medium-term support. Key resistance to watch is at 929.32, the 50-day EMA. Initial resistance is at 917.35, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
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US-CHINA: Xinhua Confirms Call Between Trump & Xi
Nov-24 14:42
- "*XI TALKS WITH TRUMP OVER PHONE: XINHUA" - bbg
- Unfortunately no extra details yet on that Trump / Xi phonecall - the Xinhua confirmation page is here, we'll keep an eye out to see if it gets updated: https://english.news.cn/20251124/0f7c2b93f1ab432fa595b3d137122b3b/c.html
- Still no additional details on the Trump-Xi call, but equities are trading stronger through the cash equity open regardless. Worth recalling in an interview with CNBC earlier today the Agriculture Secretary Rollins stated they are inking a deal on Chinese purchases of US soybeans "this week or next".
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening Calls
Nov-24 14:25
SPX: 6,649.0 (+0.7%); DJIA: 46,383 (+0.3%/+137pts); NDX: 24,484.8 (+1.0%).
SOFR: Goldman Sachs Recommend SFRZ6/Z7 Steepener
Nov-24 14:23
Goldman Sachs think that the SFRZ6/Z7 spread offers attractive asymmetry and recommended initiating steepeners at 6.0 on Friday, targeting a move to 20.0, with a stop set at 0.0.
- They believe that “the widely anticipated September payrolls print did not offer the definitive answer that market participants were likely looking for. The lack of another NFP release before the December FOMC meeting leaves something on the table for both the doves and hawks on the committee, although we still view risks to the very front-end - including December - as skewed dovish versus current pricing given the continued softening in labor market slack measures and recent wobbles in risk sentiment”.
- Goldman note that “amid the lack of clarity, terminal rate pricing has remained steady around 3%, with forward gaps beyond 2026 at historically flat levels. weaker labor market activity could front-load cuts and take terminal rate pricing more firmly below 3% but keep forwards relatively stickier, while signs of reacceleration in underlying activity could see the market open up the right tail on forward rates”.
