OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Support Remains Exposed
Aug-29 10:28
- In FX, EURUSD is in consolidation mode. The trend set-up is bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Note that the pair has pierced key support around the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.1604. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key M/T support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.
- The outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading above support. The Aug 22 price pattern - a bullish engulfing candle - signals the end of a recent corrective phase. An extension higher would open the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would expose 1.3636, 76.4% of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support is 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.
- A bear threat in USDJPY remains present. The short-term bear trigger lies at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend that started early August and open 145.40, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg.
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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: FOMC Rate Annc Follows ADP, GDP, PCE
Jul-30 10:24
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 07/30 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (0.8%, --)
- 07/30 0815 ADP Employment Change (-33k, 76k)
- 07/30 0830 GDP Annualized QoQ (-0.5%, 2.6%)
- 07/30 0830 GDP Price Index (3.8%, 2.2%)
- 07/30 0830 Personal Consumption (0.5%, 1.5%)
- 07/30 0830 Core PCE Price Index QoQ (3.5%, 2.3%)
- 07/30 1000 Pending Home Sales MoM (1.8%, 0.2%), YoY (-0.3%, -2.1%)
- 07/30 1130 US Tsy $65B 17W bill auction
- 07/30 1400 FOMC rate annc (does not include summary economic projections)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
STIR: Next Fed Cut Seen In Oct; FOMC Ahead After ADP and GDP
Jul-30 10:22
- Fed Funds implied rates hold yesterday’s decline that was helped by but started before softer 1000ET data including a broadly dovish JOLTS report relative to expectations.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1bp for today’s decision, 17bp Sep, 29.5bp Oct, 46.5bp Dec, 55.5bp Jan, 68bp Mar.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.17% (SFRH7) is unchanged on the day, holding yesterday’s 7bp decline to push back towards the middle of the 3.1-3.3% range seen through July.
- MNI Fed Preview for today’s decision: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jul2025_With_Analysts_002622ac0e.pdf
- Before then, ADP employment (0815ET) and flash Q2 GDP/PCE estimates (0830ET) headline data with the latter landing alongside Treasury’s QRA in case there is any spillover from surprises in shorter-dated issuance plans. In addition, President Trump is set to make a final call on a China tariff truce extension, with one touted option being for 90 days.
EQUITIES: Large Block trade in Estoxx
Jul-30 10:18
Large Estoxx Block trade, likely helped that latest leg higher to test an intraday high, albeit off the printed high now.
- VGU5 10k at 5400.00.
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