OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat

• RES 4: 94.15 2.000 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 93.73 1.764 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 1: 92.95./93.68 50.0% of Jun 13 - 16 downleg / High Jun 13    
• PRICE: 92.59 @ 11:26 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 92.23 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 92.04 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 91.56 Low Jun 9   
• SUP 4: 91.44 Low Jun 8        

A bullish condition is Gilt futures remains intact and Friday’s steep sell-off from the session high is for now, considered corrective. The move higher last week marks an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high. This signals scope for a test of 93.73, a Fibonacci projection point. Note the uptrend is in overbought territory, a deeper pullback would unwind this position. First firm support lies at 92.04, the 20-day EMA. 

The latest CFTC CoT report revealed cover of prevailing curve-wide positions amongst asset managers and leveraged funds in the week ending Tuesday June 10.

• Asset managers added to net longs in TU, UXY and WN futures, while trimming net longs in FV, TY & US futures. The cohort trimmed its curve-wide net long by ~$1.0mln DV01 but remains net long in all contracts.
• Leveraged funds covered some of their net short in TY, US & WN futures, while they extended net shorts in TU, FV & UXY contracts. The cohort trimmed its curve-wide net short by ~$4.2mln DV01 but remains net short in all contracts.
• The non-commercial cohort added to net shorts in TU, FV & TY futures, while they trimmed net shorts in UXY, US & WN futures. The cohort remains net short across the curve (more detail for that cohort available in the table below).
• Note that the cut off date means that initial reaction to the CPI data was captured, although PPI & UoM reaction was not.
• The data doesn’t capture the Israel-Iran developments later in the week.

Source: MNI - Market News/CFTC/Bloomberg Finance L.P.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 16-Jun 0830 Empire Manufacturing (-9.2, -6.3)
• 16-Jun 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W & $68B 26W bill auctions
• 16-Jun 1300 US Tsy $13B 20Y Bond auction re-open (912810UL0)
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI