LATAM FX: Price Signal Summary – USDCLP Support Remains Exposed

May-21 13:17
  • The trend condition in USDMXN is unchanged, it remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low, yesterday. This once again confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. The move down opens 19.2429, the Oct 14 2024 low. A break of this level would expose 19.1120, the Oct 4 2024 low. First resistance is at 19.7819, the May 6 high.                   
  • USDBRL is unchanged and the pair maintains a bearish tone. Price is trading below the 50-day EMA, at 5.7359. Scope is seen for a deeper retracement and attention is on 5.5933, the Apr 3 low and a key support. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 5.4969, the Oct 8 ‘24 low. Firm resistance to watch is 5.7632, the May 7 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a potential reversal.          
  • USDCLP is trading in a range. A bear threat remains present following recent weakness and short-term gains are considered corrective. Scope is seen for a deeper retracement towards 914.00, the Mar 18 low. Resistance to watch is 961.64, the Apr 30 high. Clearance of this level would signal a stronger reversal and refocus attention on 1007.75, the Apr 9 high.

Historical bullets

FED: Chicago's Goolsbee: Central Bank Independence Key To Anchor L-R Infl Exp

Apr-21 13:01

CNBC anchors trying to pin down Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (2025 voter, dove) on the impact of President Trump potentially replacing Fed Chair Powell - Goolsbee won't be drawn into the speculation but he is emphatic that central bank independence is crucial to keeping longer-run inflation expectations down.

  • Goolsbee says without central bank independence, you get "higher inflation, worse growth, higher unemployment." And he cites Paul Volcker's example of tightening policy to quell inflation, saying "sometimes the Fed has to do the hard job".
  • That said, asked if he still sees rates being lower 12 - 18 months from now: "I still think that", identifying the March Dot Plot as a guide to the overall direction of rates.

US TSY OPTIONS: Jun'25 10Y Ratio Put Spread

Apr-21 12:35
  • 11,179 TYM5 108/111 2x1 put spds, 32 ref 110-25.5

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Large Jun'25 2Y Buy

Apr-21 12:31
  • +20,000 TUM5 103-26.5, buy through 103-26 post time offer at 0815:05ET, DV01 $736,000. The 2Y contract trades 103-26.5 last (+1.12).