LATAM FX: Price Signal Summary – USDCLP Sell-Off Exposes Support
- The trend condition in USDMXN is unchanged, it remains bearish and the recent period of consolidation marks a pause in the downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 18.1837, the 61.8% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull leg, ahead of the 18.000 handle. Resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 18.5612. A clear break of the EMA would undermine the current bearish cycle and signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery.
- USDBRL is in consolidation mode. A bearish trend remains intact. A recent resumption of the downtrend signals scope for a move towards 5.2405, the Jun 6 2024 low and the 5.2000 handle. Key resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 5.4000. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery and open 5.5012, the Sep 2 high.
- USDCLP is trading sharply lower today. This signals the end of the recent corrective phase between Sep 16 - Oct 6. Sights are on support at 946.87, the Sep 16 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open the 940.00 handle. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 968.90, the Oct 6 high. A break of this hurdle is required to signal a reversal.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Northbound
- RES 4: 6068.66 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 1: 6541.75 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 6499.00 @ 13:10 BST Sep 8
- SUP 1: 6451.12/6371.75 20-day EMA / Low Sep 2
- SUP 2: 6353.11 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has once again proved to be a shallow correction. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week, breaching the Aug 28 high of 6523.00. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6543.75 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 6447.06, the 20-day EMA.
OPTIONS: EUR Into Upper-end of Recent Range, Nearing Sizeable Strikes
EUR spot remains pinned between a series of sizeable strikes - over E3.7bln notional is set to roll-off between 1.1700 - 1.1750 today, which could help dictate the range. With US PPI, CPI data set for this week, the larger option pipeline is thinner than usual, but decent sized options expiring at 1.1740-50(E1.4bln) and $1.1825(E1.7bln) in EURUSD on Thursday could be of post-data interest.
Full expiry schedule for today's cut here:
- EUR/USD: $1.1600(E1.2bln), $1.1620-30(E1.0bln), $1.1690-00(E1.3bln), $1.1750(E1.2bln), $1.1835(E873mln)
- USD/JPY: Y146.00($1.1bln), Y146.45-55($945mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.4000($517mln)
- USD/CNY: Cny6.9500($1.4bln)
SONIA OPTIONS: Z5 1x2 Put Spread Seller
SFIZ5 96.15/96.05 1x2 put spread, paper sells for 3.0 in 3k.
