LATAM FX: Price Signal Summary – USDCLP Holds On To Its Recent Gains
Jul-17 13:17
- The trend structure in USDMXN is unchanged, it remains bearish and fresh cycle lows last week reinforce the current downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position too, highlighting a clear bear cycle. Note that resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 19.0648, remains intact. Potential is seen for a bearish extension towards 18.4302, the Aug 1 ‘24 low, and 18.1837, the 61.8% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull leg. Clearance of the 50-day EMA is required to undermine the trend.
- USDBRL maintains a bearish tone and recent strong gains are - for now - considered corrective. However, the pair has traded through resistance at 5.5746, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery and open 5.7448, the May 23 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 5.4027, the Jul 4 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open the 5.40 handle, and 5.3153, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 ‘23 - Dec 18 ‘24 bull cycle.
- USDCLP traded higher Monday, marking a strong extension of the rally that started Jul 2. Recent gains have resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and a move above 965.21, the 50.0% retracement of the sell-off between Apr 9 - Jul 2. This undermines the recent bearish theme and sights are on 975.25 and the 987.67, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement points respectively. First key support to watch is 943.60, the 50-day EMA.
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MNI: US MAY INDUSTRIAL PROD -0.2%; CAP UTIL 77.4%
Jun-17 13:15
- MNI: US MAY INDUSTRIAL PROD -0.2%; CAP UTIL 77.4%
- US APR IP REV TO +0.1%; CAP UTIL REV 77.7%
- US MAY MFG OUTPUT +0.1%
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Latest Call Ladders
Jun-17 13:12
- ERZ5 98.25/98.50/98.625c ladder, bought for 3.75 in 3.5k.
- ERZ5 98.25/98.375/98.50c ladder, bought for half in 2k.
SOFR OPTIONS: Post-Data Flow
Jun-17 13:08
Call spread selling, conditional curve plays while underlying futures continue to scale back from post-data highs. White pack (SFRM5-SFRH6) trades steady to -.005. Projected rate cut pricing consolidates slightly from earlier levels (*) as follows: Jun'25 at 0.0bp, Jul'25 at -3.1bp (-3.6bp), Sep'25 at -18.2bp (-19.5bp), Oct'25 at -31.1bp (-32.6bp), Dec'25 at -47.3bp (-48.8bp).
- -10,000 0QZ5 97.50/97.62 call spds, 1.75 vs. 96.73/0.05%
- +2,500 SFRZ5 96.37/96.75 call spds vs. 0QZ5 97.25/97.50 call spd, 1.5 net/steepener
- +2,500 SFRN5 95.37/95.68 put spds, .37
- -4,000 SFRU5 95.68/95.81/96.25/96.37 call condors, 5.25 ref 95.875
