OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Structure In Gold Remains Bullish
* On the commodity front, Gold has recovered from its recent lows and this suggests the correction...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
STIR: Mix Of Long Setting & Short Cover In SOFR Futures On Friday
OI data points to a mix of net short cover and long setting in SOFR futures during Friday’s rally, with the former dominating in the whites and the latter dominating in the reds, blues and greens.
| 04-Apr-25 | 03-Apr-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRH5 | 1,113,707 | 1,113,685 | +22 | Whites | -46,791 |
SFRM5 | 1,209,477 | 1,278,646 | -69,169 | Reds | +37,049 |
SFRU5 | 970,896 | 943,464 | +27,432 | Greens | +37,857 |
SFRZ5 | 1,125,770 | 1,130,846 | -5,076 | Blues | +19,648 |
SFRH6 | 655,627 | 643,801 | +11,826 |
|
|
SFRM6 | 681,517 | 684,435 | -2,918 |
|
|
SFRU6 | 646,046 | 638,290 | +7,756 |
|
|
SFRZ6 | 836,838 | 816,453 | +20,385 |
|
|
SFRH7 | 520,869 | 511,819 | +9,050 |
|
|
SFRM7 | 526,968 | 501,597 | +25,371 |
|
|
SFRU7 | 320,381 | 318,096 | +2,285 |
|
|
SFRZ7 | 438,727 | 437,576 | +1,151 |
|
|
SFRH8 | 249,718 | 235,355 | +14,363 |
|
|
SFRM8 | 202,865 | 191,376 | +11,489 |
|
|
SFRU8 | 140,361 | 138,268 | +2,093 |
|
|
SFRZ8 | 149,523 | 157,820 | -8,297 |
|
|
EQUITIES: Megacaps Weak Pre-Market, But Recovery Should Support Indices
- Index futures are off lows, but still sustaining heavy losses on the day and pointing to another step lower for cash equities at today's open. Pre-market trade among megacap names has again been brutal (NVIDIA -3.4%, Tesla -5.2%, Microsoft -2.6%, Meta Platforms -2.5%, Amazon -2.5%, Apple -2.1%, Alphabet -2.7%), but prices are off their pre-market lows on heavy volumes.
- Needless to say, tariff concerns are driving prices here - with focus on the shape and structure of the EU response the next market focus. Those comments from Italy's Tajani could further prove supportive if confirmed by other leaders at their meeting in Poland today. Post-meeting press conference expected at ~1440CET (0840ET, 1340BST).
- Bear market count: NASDAQ Comp, NASDAQ-100, DAX (briefly), Russell 2000, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index - S&P 500 and Dow Jones may well hit the required levels at the cash open today (S&P 500: 4915.75, Dow Jones: 36,040)
- Price action has confirmed market is happy to look through oversold conditions, making 4,760.88 the next support for the e-mini S&P (1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing) and 4372.46 the level to watch in the Eurostoxx futures (76.4% retracement of the Oct ‘23 - Mar ‘25 bull cycle).
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- In FX, EURUSD has pulled back from last week’s high. The trend condition remains bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in the break of key resistance at 1.0955, the Mar 18 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. It paves the way for a climb towards 1.1188 next, a 0.764 projection of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 1.0824, the 20-day EMA.
- Last week’s climb in GBPUSD resulted in a break of 1.3015, the Mar 20 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Jan 13 and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The latest pullback is considered corrective, key support to watch lies at 1.2792, the 50-day EMA. The bull trigger is 1.3207, the Apr 3 high.
- USDJPY maintains a softer tone following last week’s sharp sell-off. A resumption of the downtrend and a break of Friday’s 144.56 low would signal scope for an extension towards 144.13, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. Initial firm resistance to watch is 149.12, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would - for now - be considered corrective.
