OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In Oil Futures Points South

Better Treasury & SOFR call option volumes overnight, underlying futures firmer - near overnight highs while projected rate cut pricing gaining vs late Monday levels (*): Dec'25 at -11.1bp (-10.2bp), Jan'26 at -22.1bp (-20.1bp), Mar'26 at -32.9bp (-30.9bp), Apr'26 at -40.1bp (-37.6bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • 1,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.31/96.37/96.43 call condors
  • 10,000 SFRZ5 96.12/96.25 put spds ref 96.1875
  • Block/screen, 4,500 0QZ5 96.68/96.93/96.06 broken put trees ref 96.915
  • 3,800 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62 call spds ref96.19
  • 2,000 SFRZ5 96.12/96.18/96.25 put flys ref 96.19
  • 7,500 SFRZ5 96.18/96.25/96.31/96.37 call condors ref 96.19
  • 5,000 SFRZ5 96.12/96.18/96.25/96.31 call condors ref 96.19 to -.1925
  • 1,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.37 1x2 call spds ref 96.1925
• Treasury Options:
  • 1,750 FVZ5 110.25/110.5 call spds ref 109-10.5
  • 2,500 TYZ5 112.75/113.25 1x2 call spds ref 112-27.5
  • 4,500 TYF6 114 calls, 24 ref 112-26
  • 2,000 TYZ5 113.5/TYF6 114 call spds, 19
  • 3,500 TYZ5 113.5 calls ref 112-26.5
  • 2,000 FVG6 110.25/110.5 call spds ref 109-13.25
  • 1,400 TUZ5 104.12/104.5 put sds ref 104-05.12
  • 2,000 TYZ5 113 puts 30 ref 112-24
  • 2,300 TYF6 114 calls, ref 112-20.5

• In the FI space, a bear theme in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has pierced 128.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. A clear break of this handle would signal scope for an extension towards 128.25, the Oct 7 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 129.40, last Thursday’s high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a reversal.
• The latest sharp pullback in Gilt futures is considered corrective - for now - and the next key support to watch lies at 91.82, the Sep 11 high and a former key breakout level. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. First resistance to watch is 92.85, the Nov 14 high. For bears, a break of 91.82, the Sep 11 high, would strengthen a bear theme and open 91.67, a 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg.

SFIZ5 96.20/96.25/96.30c fly, bought for 1 in 6.5k (ref 96.245) vs selling SFIZ5 96.25/96.35/96.45/96.55c condor at 2 in 6.5k.