OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In Gold Points North
May-30 10:36
- On the commodity front, a bullish theme in Gold remains intact and recent gains signal the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low. First support is $3210.6, the 50-day EMA.
- In the oil space, WTI futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle high on May 21 before finding resistance. A bear threat remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.54, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger.
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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: ADP, GDP, Chicago PMI, PCE, Home Sales
Apr-30 10:35
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 30-Apr 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-12.7%, --)
- 30-Apr 0815 ADP Employment Change (155k, 115k)
- 30-Apr 0830 US Tsy quarterly refunding annc
- 30-Apr 0830 GDP Price Index (2.3%, 3.1%)
- 30-Apr 0830 GDP Annualized QoQ (2.4%, -0.2%)
- 30-Apr 0830 Personal Consumption (4.0%, 1.2%)
- 30-Apr 0830 Core PCE Price Index QoQ (2.6%, 3.1%)
- 30-Apr 0830 Employment Cost Index (0.9%, 0.9%)
- 30-Apr 0945 MNI Chicago PMI (47.6, 45.9)
- 30-Apr 1000 Personal Income (0.8%, 0.4%); Spending (0.4%, 0.6%)
- 30-Apr 1000 PCE Price Index MoM (0.3%, 0.0%), YoY (2.5%, 2.2%)
- 30-Apr 1000 Core PCE Price Index MoM (0.4%, 0.1%), YoY (2.8%, 2.6%)
- 30-Apr 1000 Pending Home Sales MoM (2.0%, 1.0%), YoY (-7.2%, -5.7%)
- 30-Apr 1130 US Tsy $60B 17W bill auction
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Resistance Remains Intact
Apr-30 10:30
- In FX, the recent pullback in EURUSD is considered corrective and the trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a dominant uptrend, and the latest move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 1.1608 next, the Nov 9 2021 high. Key support is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1251. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.
- The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The move higher highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3510, a 1.236 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing. Support to watch lies at 1.3202, the 20-day EMA.
- The bounce in USDJPY that started Apr 22 is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 144.06, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 146.87. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a 1.382 projection of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing.
STIR: US Rates Modestly Pare Yesterday’s Latest Rally Ahead Of Data Deluge
Apr-30 10:28
- Fed Funds implied rates are 0-2bp higher on the day for 2025 meetings, in a similar pattern to yesterday’s overnight session with a modest paring of the previous day’s large rally.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 2.5bp for next week, 17bp Jun, 38.5bp Jul and 95.5bp Dec.
- The ~96bp of cuts is off yesterday’s low of 98bps that marked its lowest since Apr 11.
- Further out the curve, SOFR futures have given back little of yesterday’s gains: SFRU6 (where the terminal yield currently sits at 2.985%) is just 1 tick higher on the day at 97.015 (overnight high 97.045) having returned to pre-tariff pause levels on Monday.
- Today sees a heavy data docket, including ADP employment, Q1 GDP, Q1 ECI, MNI Chicago PMI and the monthly PCE report in chronological order.
