OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In Bunds Points North
- In the FI space, Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following last week’s gains. The contract traded above 131.74, the Nov 17 high.. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are on the 134.00 handle. Key support has been defined at 130.11, the Nov 24 low. Initial support lies at 131.94, the Nov 30 low.
- Gilt futures sold off sharply last Thursday. For now, a bull cycle remains in play and key short-term support has been defined at 95.25, the Nov 24 low. The recovery from this level is a positive development and has opened 98.05, the Nov 17 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, a break of 95.25 would instead strengthen a bearish threat and expose 94.74, the 2.618 projection of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing. Initial support lies at 96.10, the Nov 30 low.
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USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 1.129 1.382 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4070 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
- RES 1: 1.3739/3899 Intraday high / High Nov 1
- PRICE: 1.3664 @ 16:44 GMT Nov 3
- SUP 1: 1.3661 Low Oct 24
- SUP 2: 1.3638 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3569 Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 1.3496 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
USDCAD traded sharply lower Thursday and extended the pullback into the Friday close. The trend outlook over the medium-term is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Price has breached support at the 20-day EMA - at 1.3739. The break signals scope for a stronger pullback and exposes the 50-day EMA, at 1.3638. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3899, the Nov 1 high. A breach of this level would resume the uptrend.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
- RES 3: 0.6562 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6512 High Nov 3
- PRICE: 0.6512 @ 16:42 GMT Nov 3
- SUP 1: 0.6315/0.6270 Low Oct 31 / 26 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6135 2.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
Short-term gains in AUDUSD are considered corrective. The pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this strengthens the current bull cycle. A clear breach of the average would suggest scope for a stronger correction. This would expose key trend resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at 0.6270, the Oct 26 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 162.80 1.00 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
- RES 3: 162.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 161.52 2.618 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
- RES 1: 160.85 High Oct 31
- PRICE: 160.28 @ 16:40 GMT Nov 3
- SUP 1: 158.93/157.96 High Oct 30 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 156.98 Low Oct 16
- SUP 3: 155.83 Low Oct 4
- SUP 4: 154.46 Oct 3 and the bear trigger
The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bullish - the recovery from Monday’s low confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and resulted in a break this week of resistance and the bull trigger at 159.92, the Oct 24 high. 161.52, a Fibonacci projection, marks the next objective. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 157.96, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this average is required to highlight a top and the start of a correction.
