OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Support In Gold Remains Intact For Now
Nov-19 11:52
- On the commodity front, the downleg in Gold between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. With the metal having retraced off last week’s high, the key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3937.4. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4245.23, the Nov 13 high.
- WTI futures are trading in a range. A sell-off on Nov 12 strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Phase In Gilts Remains Intact
Oct-20 11:24
- In the FI space, despite strong selling pressure on Friday, a bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact. The impulsive nature of the latest rally and a fresh cycle high on Friday, paves the way for a test of the next key resistance 130.80, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that the contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Key support is 129.12, the 20-day EMA. Initial firm support is 129.44, the Sep 10 high.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and last week’s strong impulsive rally reinforces current conditions. Recent gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The break opens 93.30 next, a 1.236 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Key support to watch lies at 91.39, the 20-day EMA. Initial firm support is at 91.82, the Sep 24 high and a recent breakout level.
UK: MNI Gilt Week Ahead: Another huge data week to come
Oct-20 11:18
Full MNI Gilt Week Ahead here.
- It will be another busy week for UK data next week with fiscal data due for release on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday and retail sales and flash PMI data due on Friday. Note that these will be the last releases of these data to be included in both the November MPR and the OBR's forecasts for the Budget.
- We look at the weekend's fiscal news and the impact on CPI that different changes to energy taxation could have.
- We also look back at last week's main MPC comments and ahead to this week.
- The full document also includes supply previews for the week ahead, balance sheet and repo operations trackers, a UK-focused calendar and a summary of gilt operations and the DMO's issuance plans.
EGB OPTIONS: Bund downside Put Spread
Oct-20 10:57
RXF6 129.00/127.50ps, bought for 33 in 2k.
