OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Support In Gold Remains Intact For Now
Nov-06 12:09
- On the commodity front, a fresh cycle low recently in Gold highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The move down since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3871.7 - a key pivot support. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
- WTI futures are trading below recent highs, however, a short-term corrective bull cycle remains in play. Price has recently traded through resistance at the 50-day EMA, currently at $60.97. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that a resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, Sep 26 high. The bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, Oct 20 low.
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STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Oct-07 12:05
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.15% (-0.03), volume: $2.981T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.13% (-0.03), volume: $1.181T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.13% (-0.03), volume: $1.147T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
GILTS: GF6 90.00/91.00/93.00/94.00 Call Condor Lifted
Oct-07 12:02
GF6 90.00/91.00/93.00/94.00 call condor paper paid 22.5 on 1.5K.
EU-BOND SYNDICATION: 2.75% Dec-32 / New 15-year Dec-40 EU-bond: Allocations
Oct-07 12:00
2.75% Dec-32 EU-bond
- Spread set at MS + 34bps (guidance was MS + 36bps area)
- Size: E5bln - in line with initial guidance (MNI expected E4-5bln)
- Final books in excess of E96bln (inc E7bln JLM interest)
- HR 105% vs 1.70% Aug-32 Bund
New 15-year Dec-2040
- Spread set at MS + 75bps (guidance wasMS + 77bps area
- Size: E6bln - up from initial E5bln guidance (MNI expects E5-6bln)
- Final books in excess of E79bln (inc E6.75bln JLM interest)
- HR 98% vs 2.60% May-41 Bund
- ISIN: EU000A4EJF17
- Coupon: Long first
- Maturity: 12 December 2040
For both:
- JLMs: BNP Paribas, Citi, Deutsche Bank, DZ BANK and Santander
- Settlement: 14 October 2025 (T+5)
- Timing: Hedge ratio 13:20BST / 14:20CET
From market source / MNI colour
