OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Support In Gold Intact For Now
Oct-31 10:52
- On the commodity front, a fresh cycle low this week in Gold highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement this month has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3853.2. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
- Recent gains in WTI futures appear corrective for now, however, note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.05. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. A resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear break of it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Cracks In Democrat Unity Point To Govt Shutdown Offramp
Oct-01 10:50
At 00:01 ET 05:01 BST this morning, the US government shut down for the first time since 2018-19, after the Senate rejected a House-passed Continuing Resolution to extend FY25 government funding through November. The Senate also rejected a competing Democratic funding bill that would extend expiring Obamacare subsidies, among a raft of healthcare measures.
- There are no ongoing negotiations or meetings planned today, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is likely to hold a third vote on both bills at 11:00 ET 16:00 BST. They are expected to fail again.
- Yesterday’s Senate vote indicated that moderate Democrat support for prolonging a shutdown is not particularly robust. While Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) was the only Democrat ‘yes’ on the first Senate vote last week, that number is now up to three.
- If President Donald Trump and OMB Director Russell Vought follow through on threats to use the shutdown as a pretext to enact mass layoffs across government agencies, moderate Democratic Senators will find it hard to hold the line without a clear endgame.
- Should Democrats maintain their block, the most obvious route out of the shutdown is a deal on extending the expiring Obamacare subsidies. An extension could be included in a rewritten CR or in a handshake deal with Republican leadership. Indeed, Democrats believe that Trump, often out of lockstep with GOP orthodoxy, can be convinced that extending Obamacare subsidies is in his own political interests.
Full Article: GOVT SHUTDOWN BRIEF
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Futures Remain Below Resistance
Oct-01 10:47
- On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold is unchanged and a bull cycle remains in play. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh cycle high this week, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3909.4, a 2.00 projection of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing. On the downside, support to watch lies at $3646.3, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
- In the oil space, WTI futures have pulled back from their recent gains. The contract has recently breached $65.43, the Sep 2 high and this has potentially improved the S/T condition for bulls. However, the next key resistance is at $68.43, the Jul 30 high, where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a clear reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. A break of this level would reinstate the downtrend.
SONIA OPTIONS: More Call Spread buyer
Oct-01 10:43
SFIM6 96.60/96.80cs, bought for 3.5 in 11.6k total now.
