OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Structure Remains Bullish
Nov-17 11:26
- In the equity space S&P E-Minis maintain a firmer tone. The contract traded sharply higher Tuesday, and is holding on to this week’s gains. Resistance at 4415.25, a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high, has been cleared. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for gains towards 4552.38, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 4387.01, the 20-day EMA.
- A short-term bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading higher today. Price has recently cleared resistance at both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bullish development. Note that Tuesday’s gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 4256.00, the Oct 12 high. The focus is on 4359.00, the Sep 15 high. A break would open 4388.00, the Aug 30 high. Initial firm support to watch is at 4190.30, the 20-day EMA.
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BTP: BTP/Bund Spread Wider
Oct-18 11:14
Periphery yields follow core EGBs lower, but the BTP/Bund spread has continued its grind higher to trade 3.8bps wider on the day at 204.5bps.
- The turning point in EGBs has been partially related to French headlines, where a number of airports have been evacuated after "threats of attack".
- Italy underperforms, with the BTP 2s10s curve bear steepening to trade 1.6bps wider at 82.0bps. The Italian exchange auction earlier will have provided pressure to BTPs (selling longer-maturity BTP supply in exchange for BTP Short Term/BTP Italia's), while the Italian trade balance and in-line eurozone final September inflation were not market movers.
- Portugal is once again the periphery outperformer, the 10-yearPGB/Bunds is 0.8bps tighter at 72.1bps.
US MBA: REFIS -10% SA; PURCH INDEX -6% SA THRU OCT 13 WK
Oct-18 11:00
- US MBA: REFIS -10% SA; PURCH INDEX -6% SA THRU OCT 13 WK
- US MBA: UNADJ PURCHASE INDEX -21% VS YEAR-EARLIER LEVEL
- US MBA: 30-YR CONFORMING MORTGAGE RATE 7.70% VS 7.67% PREV
MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -6.9% SA THRU OCT 13 WK
Oct-18 11:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -6.9% SA THRU OCT 13 WK
