OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Hold On To This Week's Gains
Sep-01 09:54
- The E-mini S&P contract maintains a firmer short-term tone. Price has traded above resistance at 4526.29, the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 13 low that was breached on Aug 16. A clear break of this level would strengthen the upleg and open 4560.75, the Aug 4 high. Initial support to watch lies at 4455.40, the 50-day EMA. A return below the average would be a bearish development.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain closer to recent highs despite the latest pullback. The contract has traded above resistance at the 50-day EMA at 4329.9. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 4420.00. The bull trigger is 4358.00, the Aug 30 high. On the downside, a breach of 4187.00, the Aug 18 low, would be a bearish development and confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
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RUSSIA: Putin-Erdogan Call Underway, Russia To Return To BSGI If Conditions Met
Aug-02 09:48
Wires carrying comments from the Kremlin stating that a call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Erdogan on the Black Sea Grain Initiative is underway.
- Kremlin: "Moscow will return to [the Black Sea Grain Initiative] immediately when the part that concerns Russia is implemented."
- Russian demands are understood to include greater market access for Russian fertilizers and a provision which facilitates the export of Russian ammonia via a pipeline which transits Ukraine to Odesa - idle since the start of the war.
- Russian news service Tass reported yesterday: "Turkey is not giving up on its efforts to resume the Black Sea Grain Initiative and has regular communication on this issue with the UN, Russia and Ukraine."
- US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said at a press conference yesterday: "We have seen indications that [Russia] might be interested in returning to discussions.”
- Thomas-Greenfield: "[UN] Secretary-General [Antonio Guterres] is continuing his efforts to find a path forward to bring the Russians back into the deal," noting that part of the deal was "to provide some support for Russia's fertilizer to get to the market."
GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: Decent 15y Bund auction
Aug-02 09:41
- That was a decent 15-year Bund auction with the bid-to-offer on the on-the-run 1.00% May-38 Bund higher than the previous auction in May while the lowest accepted price (to 2dp) was the same as the average price for that issue and only 0.01 lower for the off-the-run 0% May-36 Bund.
- The lowest accepted prices were above the prevailing market prices for both Bunds sold.
- Now both issues are trading comfortably above the average auction price - albeit both off their highs of the day.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bull Condition Remains Intact
Aug-02 09:41
- In FX, EURUSD maintains a softer tone and the pair continues to trade closer to last week’s lows. Support at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.0975, and a trendline support at 1.0979, remain exposed. The trendline is drawn from the May 31 low. A clear break of both levels would strengthen a bearish threat and open 1.0867, the Jul 7 low. First key resistance is seen at 1.1150, the Jul 27 high.
- GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday highlighting an extension of the bear cycle. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 1.2747 (pierced). Note too that the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 8 low and a key support, lies at 1.2738 today. A clear break of the 1.2747-38 support zone would strengthen a bearish theme. This would pave the way for weakness towards 1.2674, the Jul 6 low. First key resistance is at 1.2996, the Jul 27 high.
- USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair traded higher yesterday. Price has breached 143.22, 76.4% of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg. The break strengthens current bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher. The focus is on 144.20 next, the Jul 7 high, and key resistance at 145.07, the Jun 30 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 138.07, the Jul 28 low. Initial support lies at 141.13, the 20-day EMA.
