OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Reversal Signal In WTI
May-22 10:44
On the commodity front, recent gains in Gold signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals remain bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.
In the oil space, WTI futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle high Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, still appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.82, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a clear reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. Yesterday’s price pattern is a shooting star candle - a reversal signal.
2,463 UXYM5 112-18, may be a sale with a fair amount of two-way trade at the post time of 0625:10ET, DV01 $218,000. The contract trades 112-17.5 (-8.5) last
STIR: Senior FOMC Officials In The Spotlight
Apr-22 10:37
Fed Funds implied rates sit within yesterday’s Easter Monday holiday-thinned ranges as markets assess the latest of US President Trump’s attempts at pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates.
Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 3.5bp May, 18.5bp Jun, 41bp Jul, 60bp Sep and 91bp Dec.
Yesterday’s timely MNI policy team exclusive with Lev Menand looked at options away from just Fed Chair Powell’s role (see Fed Independence Facing Imminent Risk – Menand, published 1613ET).
That sees today’s various scheduled Fedspeakers in particular focus in an another quiet data docket, with messages either of continued caution against cutting rates too soon or a more dovish tone both of note. We imagine permanent voters Jefferson and Kugler will be watched most closely, although Kugler is late on.
0900ET – Vice Chair Jefferson (permanent voter) on economic mobility and the dual mandate (text only). He said Apr 3 that there was no need to hurry to adjust rates and that is was crucial to assess the full effect of Trump administration changes. That said, he noted growth was solid but saw signs of slowing and that persistent uncertainty may constrain the economy.
0930ET – Harker (retiring June) on economic mobility and regional economies (fireside chat)
1340ET – Kashkari (’26 voter) at Chamber of Commerce Global Summit (Q&A only)
1800ET – Gov. Kugler (permanent voter) on monetary policy transmission (text + Q&A). She said Apr 7 that inflation was now the more pressing issue with regards to tariffs and that the Fed needs to make sure it doesn’t rise. She warned the tariff impact should be consequential.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Gold Remains In Play
Apr-22 10:36
On the commodity front, the trend needle in Gold continues to point north and this week’s fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. The yellow metal has traded to another fresh all-time high. Note too that moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, the 1.764 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing. Initial firm support lies at 3163.5, the 20-day EMA. First support is $3331.5, the Apr 21 low.
In the oil space, a bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9 is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, a 2.236 projection of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.49, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level. The 50-day EMA is at $66.22.