OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Reversal Signal In GBPUSD
May-14 10:19
- In FX, EURUSD maintains a softer tone and the pair traded sharply lower Monday. Recent weakness appears corrective and key trend signals remain bullish. Note that a key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1086, remains intact. A clean break of this average would undermine the uptrend. A key resistance to watch is 1.1381, the May 2 - 6 high. Clearance of this level would signal the end of the correction.
- Recent weakness in GBPUSD is considered corrective. Tuesday’s gains highlight a possible reversal pattern - a bullish engulfing candle. If correct, the pattern signals the end of the corrective cycle. Key support to watch is 1.3095, the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the key resistance and bull trigger, at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend.
- The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. This corrective phase remains in play, for now. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.32, has been cleared, strengthening a bullish theme. The move higher has exposed 148.54, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg (pierced). A clear break of this level would also strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention 142.36, the May 6 low. Initial support is at 144.93, the 20-day EMA.
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US INFLATION: MNI US Inflation Insight: No Tariff Surge Realization In March
Apr-14 10:15
- We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Inflation Insight.
- Please find the full report including MNI analysis and a range of analyst core PCE estimates here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_Inflation_Insight_Apr2025_6247605af4.pdf
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Latest Option trades
Apr-14 10:11
- ERM5 98.00/98.12cs 1x1.5, sold the 1 at -0.5 in 6k.
- ERM5 97.75/97.87cs 1x1.5, bought the 2 for 4 in 6k.
SCANDIS: Improved Global Risk Sentiment Lends Support To NOK and SEK
Apr-14 10:10
Scandi FX outperform the G10 basket this morning, with temporary US tariff reprieve for electronic imports lending support to broader risk sentiment. EURSEK and EURNOK are each ~0.8% lower at typing.
- Following the recent US tariff inspired market volatility, SEB highlight that "NOK trades at higher implied vols than peers across the smile, with downside protection
more priced". They go on to note that "risk reversals confirm this, showing a stronger call bias in EURNOK and USDNOK vs SEK pairs". - In EURSEK, last week’s low at 10.8812 provides initial support, while a close above 11.2000 will be required to signal an extension of the corrective bull cycle that began on April 4.
- Swedish money market participant 5-year ahead CPIF inflation expectations (released this morning) were steady at 2.3% in April, with PES unemployment data due on Wednesday. Main focus will be on tomorrow’s Spring budget bill (0700BST/0800CET), for which SEK11.5bln of expansionary measures have already been announced.
- EURNOK hovers just above the 12.0000 handle, which provides initial support before the prior breakout level of 11.8371 (March 5 high). Last Friday’s high of 12.2223 provides initial resistance.
- Light Norwegian calendar this week, with domestic markets closed from Wednesday afternoon for Easter.
