OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Oil Futures Remain Vulnerable

Jun-01 10:07

On the commodity front, the bear cycle in Gold remains intact and short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The yellow metal has this week pierced $1942.4, trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. A clear breach of this trendline would reinforce bearish conditions and pave the way for a move towards $1903.5, 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.
In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a bear mode position. The strong sell-off this week has resulted in a break of support at $69.39, the May 15 low. The clear breach strengthens bearish conditions and paves the way for weakness towards $63.90, the May 4 low. On the upside, key resistance is at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at $73.82, where a break would instead be seen as a bullish development.

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May-02 10:04

* US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)

* May-02 1000 FOMC day one of two

* May-02 1000 JOLTS Job Openings (9931k, 9736k)

* May-02 1000 Factory Orders (-0.70%, 1.3%)

* May-02 1000 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (-0.40%, --)

* May-02 1000 Wards Total Vehicle Sales (14.82M, 15.10M)

* May-02 1130 US Tsy $40B 21-Day CMB auction

May-02 10:03

May-02 10:02

In FX, EURUSD remains in an uptrend and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforces a bullish theme. A resumption of gains would open 1.1127,the 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition highlighting a rising trend. Key short-term support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA. It intersects at 1.0957. Following today’s move lower, the average has been pierced. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper correction towards 1.0858, the 50-day EMA.
The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and last Friday’s gains reinforce this theme. The pair traded higher to breach resistance at 1.2546, the Apr 14 high and bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2435. A clear break of it is required to suggest scope for a deeper correction.
USDJPY rallied sharply higher last Friday and yesterday’s gains highlight a bullish start to the week. Friday’s rally resulted in a break of 135.13, the Apr 19 high, to confirm a resumption of the trend that started Mar 24. The pair has cleared a number of key short-term resistance points and this paves the way for a test of 137.91, the Mar 8 high and a key resistance. Initial support is seen at 136.14, Monday’s low.

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