OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Oil Futures Head South
May-03 10:29
- On the commodity front, Gold traded higher Tuesday. For now, the yellow metal remains in a short-term bearish corrective cycle. Price has recently pierced support at $1990.5, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. A move lower would open $1955.2, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, key short-term resistance has been defined at $2048.7, the Apr 5 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
- In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a downtrend and yesterday’s sharp sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has cleared a number of retracement levels and this signals scope for weakness towards $69.02, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 rally. On the upside a key short-term resistance has been defined at $76.92, the Apr 28 high where a break would ease bearish pressure and potentially highlight a reversal.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Trend Outlook Remains Bullish
Apr-03 10:28
- On the commodity front, trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. Note that price action since Mar 20 appears to be a pennant - a continuation pattern. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The recent test above $2000.0 opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. $1918.3 marks a firm support, the Mar 17 low - a break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.
- In the Oil space, WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and today’s gap higher at the open, strengthens this current condition. The contract has touched a high of $81.69, just above resistance at $81.04, the Mar 7 high. A clear break of $81.04 would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $83.04, the Jan 23 high. Key support is seen at $75.72, the Mar 31 high and the gap low on the daily chart. Initial support lies at $77.60, 23.6% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 3 rally.
EQUITIES: Emini looks to close the gap
Apr-03 10:24
- Emini look to close the opening gap up to 4139.50, ahead of 4142.50, Friday's high, and 4148.48 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg.
- Estoxx (VGM3) sees next psychological target at 4300.00.
STIR FUTURES: Fed Rate Path Continues Trend Move Higher
Apr-03 10:21
- Fed Funds implied rates have held onto a move higher at the open and despite some retracement from earlier highs are still at Friday’s high pre core PCE miss with a 15bp hike priced for May (+2bp) from the current effective 4.83%.
- The first cut from current levels is seen in Sep with -12.5bp at 4.71% (+3.5bp) and 42bp of cuts to 4.41% in Dec (+6.5bp).
- Gov. Cook speaks late at 1615ET in a moderated discussion on mon pol. She last spoke Fri – weighing stronger momentum against potential headwinds, with banking turmoil having potential to tighten credit [and lower the rate path].
FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg
