OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Oil Futures Clear Resistance
* On the commodity front, the primary uptrend in Gold remains intact and another fresh cycle high ...
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SOFR: Mix Of Short Cover & Long Setting In Futures On Friday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting and short cover as SOFR futures ticked higher on Friday. Net long setting in the reds provided the most meaningful net pack OI swing.
| 26-Dec-25 | 24-Dec-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRZ5 | 1,522,573 | 1,534,132 | -11,559 | Whites | -5,403 |
SFRH6 | 1,311,995 | 1,315,366 | -3,371 | Reds | +23,848 |
SFRM6 | 1,169,334 | 1,155,753 | +13,581 | Greens | +2,277 |
SFRU6 | 1,202,563 | 1,206,617 | -4,054 | Blues | +2,305 |
SFRZ6 | 1,179,171 | 1,164,690 | +14,481 |
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SFRH7 | 873,108 | 870,724 | +2,384 |
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SFRM7 | 775,481 | 765,772 | +9,709 |
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SFRU7 | 804,039 | 806,765 | -2,726 |
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SFRZ7 | 852,703 | 852,150 | +553 |
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SFRH8 | 481,575 | 479,323 | +2,252 |
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SFRM8 | 401,360 | 401,228 | +132 |
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SFRU8 | 376,431 | 377,091 | -660 |
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SFRZ8 | 348,025 | 345,841 | +2,184 |
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SFRH9 | 217,162 | 216,656 | +506 |
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SFRM9 | 215,236 | 216,201 | -965 |
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SFRU9 | 174,661 | 174,081 | +580 |
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US TSY FUTURES: Cover Dominated On Friday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting (TU), short cover (FV & TY) and long cover (UXY, US & WN) as the curve twist steepened on Friday. Lightening up of existing positions dominated, with the short cover in the belly of the curve providing the most notable positioning swing.
| 26-Dec-25 | 24-Dec-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,491,404 | 4,485,697 | +5,707 | +223,104 |
FV | 6,697,077 | 6,728,492 | -31,415 | -1,383,610 |
TY | 5,524,091 | 5,582,083 | -57,992 | -3,891,977 |
UXY | 2,520,380 | 2,527,710 | -7,330 | -664,646 |
US | 1,816,117 | 1,829,699 | -13,582 | -1,937,505 |
WN | 2,073,180 | 2,073,768 | -588 | -107,348 |
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| Total | -105,200 | -7,761,982 |
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg Activity
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 12/29 1000 Pending Home Sales MoM (1.9%, 1.0%), YoY (-0.4%, 0.1%)
- 12/29 1030 Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (-10.4, -6.0)
- 12/29 1130 US Tsy $86B 13W & $77B 26W bill auctions
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
