OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Monitoring Support In Gold
Oct-30 11:53
- On the commodity front, a fresh cycle low this week in Gold highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. Note that the trend is overbought and the deeper retracement is allowing this condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a deeper retracement, towards the 50-day EMA, at $3846.3. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
- Recent gains in WTI futures appear corrective for now, however, note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $60.09. The breach of this average signals scope for a stronger recovery. A resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear break of it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $55.96, the Low Oct 20.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 2Y Sale
Sep-30 11:31
- -6,500 TUZ5 104-05.25, post time bid at 0716:32ET, DV01 $257,800.
- The 2Y contract trades 104-05.38 last (+.75)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Recent Recovery In Bunds Appears Corrective
Sep-30 11:17
- In the FI space, Bund futures have recovered from their recent lows - this appears to be a correction for now. Key support and the bear trigger remains exposed. It lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is 128.84, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg.
- Gilt futures have recovered from their latest lows. The move down last week strengthens a bearish theme and does suggest the end of the recent corrective phase between Sep 3 - 11. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 89.94, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 11 corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is 91.28, the Sep 24 high.
UK: PM To Deliver Conference Speech @14:00BST Under Major Political Pressure
Sep-30 11:14
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will deliver a keynote address to the annual conference of his centre-left Labour Party at ~14:00BST (09:00ET, 15:00CET) Livestream here. The speech is seen as an important one for the PM as he is set to remain under intense political pressure in the short and medium term:
- The latest opinion polling from Ipsos shows Starmer with the lowest personal satisfaction rating of any British prime minister since the outlet began conducting surveys in 1977. The PM's net rating for September is -66, with the previous recorded lows coming from Conservative prime ministers, Rishi Sunak (-59, April 2024) and John Major (-59, August 1994).
- The upcoming budget announcement on 26 November is expected to raise the UK's tax burden further from already post-war highs. MNI's Markets team have assessed some of the potential options for the chancellor ahead of the announcement. Higher taxes without demonstrable improvements in public services could spur further shifts in support towards Nigel Farage's right-wing populist Reform UK.
- The next electoral test for the PM and Labour comes in May 2026. Local elections will take place across swathes of England in addition to elections to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Poor results in these contests, particularly the loss of first place in Wales and control of cities in the Midlands and northern England to Reform UK could spark a leadership challenge against Starmer.
