OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Monitoring Support In Gold

• On the commodity front, a bullish theme in Gold remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Medium-term trend signals are bullish - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, the next support to monitor is $3240.0, the 50-day EMA.
• In the oil space, WTI futures traded higher last week, resulting in a clear break of resistance around the 50-day EMA. The climb signals scope for an extension towards $65.82, the Apr 4 high. It is still possible that the recovery since early May is a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term downtrend. Support to watch lies at $59.74, the May 30 low. A break would highlight a potential bearish reversal.

OI data points to net short setting dominating in 7 of the front 8 SOFR futures on Friday, before positioning swings became a little more balanced between net short setting and long cover further out the strip

• A reminder that the NFP data and news of an impending Sino-U.S. meeting on trade maters drove much of the hawkish repricing seen in the U.S. short end ahead of the weekend. SFRZ5 got within 2.5bp of its May lows.

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.

• Treasuries are modestly firmer after the weekend, holding the majority Friday’s sell-off on a somewhat solid payrolls report that defied a dovish build-up to the release from other downside surprises elsewhere.
• The US and China are set to resume trade talks in London today, focusing on rare earth minerals and advanced technology after last week’s Trump-Xi call. Just the fact that call had gone ahead saw a fixed income sell-off last week.
• As for potential headline timings, Trump participates in an Invest America Roundtable at 1400ET with the White House press pool.
• Cash yields are 2-3bp lower on the day. That includes 10Y yields at 4.4817% having eased back from Friday’s latest clearance of 4.50% with a high of 4.5116%.
• Curves are a little off Friday’s post-payrolls flats, with 2s10s at 47.6bp (+0.3bp) and 5s30s at 85.8bp (+0.7bp).
• TYU5 trades at 110-03 (+ 06) having slowly climbed a little further off Friday’s 109-28, with low cumulative volumes of 250k.
• A bearish threat is present, with support seen at 109-26 (May 29 low) before the bear trigger at 109-12+ (May 22 low). Resistance meanwhile is seen at 110-20+ (50-day EMA) with a key short-term level at 111-14+ (Jun 5 high & 61.8% of May 1-22 downleg) required to be cleared for a more bullish trajectory.
• Data: Wholesale inventories/sales Apr F/Apr (1000ET), NY Fed inflation expectations May (1100ET)
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W & $68B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)