OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Key Resistance In Gold Remains Exposed

• On the commodity front, Gold is trading below last week’s high. The downleg between Oct 20 - 28, appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. Key support lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3927.5. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would pave the way for a test of $4381.5, the Oct 20 high and bull trigger.
• A sell-off in WTI futures on Nov 12 strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.96, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $62.59, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.

SX7E (20th Mar) 250/200ps 1x2, bought for 12.1 in 4.5k vs 1.44k at 238.50.

All of today’s Fedspeakers have spoken since the Oct 29 FOMC decision but we don’t rule out potential for reaction to comments from senior members Jefferson and Waller if there any tweaks in view. Waller in particular has driven by some gyrations in rates over the past six weeks, sounding a little more patient ahead of the October meeting before confirming a more dovish stance since then. However, surprises might be limited coming ahead of a official data releases resuming including Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls release for September. 

• 0900ET - NY Fed’s Williams (voter) welcome remarks (no text or Q&A)
• 0930ET - VC Jefferson (voter) on economic outlook & mon pol (text + Q&A). He gave a speech on Nov 7 in which he described wanting to proceed slowly with policy easing as a result of being closer to a neutral level. He added “With respect to the path of the policy rate going forward, I will continue to   determine policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. I always take a meeting-by-meeting approach.”
• 1300ET – MN Fed’s Kashkari (’26 voter) moderates conversation (no text). As we noted in Friday’s MNI US Macro Weekly (link), Kashkari has tilted more hawkish recently, revealing he would have preferred to have held rates steady in October and is waiting and seeing for the December meeting.
• 1535ET – Gov. Waller (voter, dove) on economic outlook (text + Q&A). He made clear on Oct 31 that he still supports a rate cut in December. "The fog might tell you to slow down. It doesn't tell you to pull over to the side of the road. You still have to go. You may want to be careful, but it doesn't mean to stop, and … the right thing to do with policy is to continue cutting."