OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Remains Above The 50-Day EMA For Now

FX Exchange traded Option, rolling call:

• GBPUSD (3rd Oct vs 9th Jan) 126.00c, bought the Jan for 0.02 in 1.2k.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is delivering her keynote address to the Labour party conference in Liverpool. Livestream here. Early in her speech, Reeves is interrupted by a pro-Palestinian protester, but resumes after a short pause. As noted earlier (see 'GILTS: Bull Flattening, Ramsden & Reeves Eyed', 10:34BST), the chancellor has reiterated Labour's manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, VAT, or employee national insurance. 

• With a refusal to rule out tax rises in the November budget, the chancellor's pledge on the 'big three' revenue raisers leaves fewer options in terms of where the gov't can look to bolster its coffers (see 'UK FISCAL: VAT increase impacts on fiscal, CPI, monetary policy', 09:40BST).
• At ~15:00BST, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is due to deliver her keynote address. Given the prominence of immigration as a hot-button political issue in the UK at present, the new Home Secretary's plans for combating small boat crossings of the English Channel will be closely scrutinised amid continued strong polling for the right-wing populist Reform UK. 

• In the FI space, Bund futures have recovered from their recent lows. However, key support and the bear trigger remains exposed, it lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is at 128.61, the 50-day EMA.
• Gilt futures traded lower late last week. The move down strengthens a bearish theme and does suggest the end of the recent corrective phase between Sep 3 - 11. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would open 89.94, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 11 corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is 91.28, the Sep 24 high.