OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat
Sep-18 10:28
- On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and short-term weakness is for now, considered corrective. A fresh all-time high, once again this week, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. The next objective is $3705.2, a 1.382 projection of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing. Initial firm support lies at $3558.4, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, the trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support
Aug-19 10:27
- RES 4: 113-23 76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1
- RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5
- PRICE: 111-19+ @ 11:16 BST Aug 19
- SUP 1: 111-10+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-23+/08+ Low Aug 1 / Low Jul 15 & 16
- SUP 3: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
The underlying bullish theme in Treasury futures remains intact, supported by the recent clearance of 112-12+, the Jul 1 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open 112-23, the May 1 high and the next important resistance. Above 112-23, retracement levels are layered between 113-07 and 113-23. Key support is 110-08+, the low on Jul 15 and 16. First key support is yet to be tested at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low.
BUNDS: Buxl leads the recovery off the Lows in Bonds
Aug-19 10:25
- The German Bund is back at the 129.00 Figure, the 2.80% Yield resistance has again held today, printed a 2.784% high.
- The German 30yr Buxl is the contract that has led Bonds, the Yield traded to its highest level since July 2011 earlier, and the Futures has bounced off the 113.00 level since.
- There's been some interest in fading the 5s/30s away from the 103.00 level, printed a 102.99 high, but settling down to 102.10 now.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: House Starts/Permits, Fed VC Bowman
Aug-19 10:21
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 08/19 0830 Housing Starts (1.321M, 1.297M), MoM (4.6%, -1.8%)
- 08/19 0830 Building Permits (1.393M, 1.386M), MoM (-0.1%, -0.5%)
- 08/19 1000 Fed VC Bowman interview on Bbg TV
- 08/19 1130 US Tsy $85B 6W bill auction
- 08/19 1410 Fed VC Bowman blockchain symposium, WY
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
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