OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilts Remain Above Support For Now
Nov-07 12:26
- In the FI space, a short-term bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The move down that started on Oct 17 still appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The print below a key support at 129.14, the 50-day EMA, signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support is 128.92, a Fibonacci retracement. First important resistance is 129.73, Oct 28 high.
- The trend structure in Gilt futures remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 94.00. Clearance of this level would open 94.24, a 1.618 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Note that the contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would unwind this condition. Initial firm support is at 92.96, the 20-day EMA.
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Govt Shutdown Day 8, No Sign Of Offramp
Oct-08 12:24
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- President Donald Trump will receive an intel briefing in the morning before participating in a “roundtable on ANTIFA” at 15:00 ET 20:00 BST, as National Guard troops arrive in Chicago.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) teed up a sixth vote on the duelling Republican and Democratic government funding measures at 11:20 ET 16:20 BST. Both bills are expected to fail.
- Republicans are struggling with strategy to ramp up pressure on Democrats. Earlier this week, Trump undermined Republican messaging by hinting at a bipartisan deal on Obamacare. The White House has also offered mixed signals on federal layoffs. Air traffic controller shortages could play a role in ending the shutdown.
- The Trump administration has pushed back plans for a farmer bailout due to the government shutdown.
- The White House is weighing up cancelling an additional USD$12 billion in clean energy funding.
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney escaped an Oval Office meeting without a public blowout, but little progress towards a trade deal with Trump.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend an October 9 ministerial in Paris to discuss Gaza peace negotiations.
- Senate Democrats will force a war powers vote on Venezuela as Trump moves closer to open conflict with Caracas.
- Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister said efforts at Ukraine diplomacy discussed at the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska have been exhausted.
- Poll of the Day: Democrats are in a weaker midterm position than during Trump's first term.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: SOFR Red Pack
Oct-08 12:24
- Total 5,000 SOFR Red packs (SFRZ6-SFRU7) +0.005 from 0811:53ET to 0815:50ET
- Potentially a swap-tied sale as spreads run wider in the vicinity this morning
STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Oct-08 12:17
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.14% (-0.01), volume: $2.946T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.12% (-0.01), volume: $1.165T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.12% (-0.01), volume: $1.134T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
