OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Support Remains Intact For Now
Feb-06 12:26
- In FX, gains in EURUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A bullish candle formation on Monday - a hammer - signals a potential reversal. However, additional reinforcing price evidence is required to signal a turn in the trend. The 20-day EMA has been pierced and the focus is on 1.0442, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would be a bullish development. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. 1.0272 is first support, the Feb 4 low.
- Gains earlier this week in GBPUSD have resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA and delivered a print above 1.2503, the 50-day EMA, and 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610, 38.2% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. The pair has traded lower today. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.2249, the Jan 3 low. A break of this level would highlight a reversal.
- A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and Wednesday’s move down reinforces current conditions. The sell-off expands the downside range, with the pair narrowing the proximity with the December low. Sights are on 151.06, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 155.30, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 156.75, the Jan 23 high, where a break would highlight a bullish reversal.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Issuance Roundup: $6B EIB on Tap
Jan-07 12:23
Hard act to follow after Monday's record $59.55B corporate debt issuance - would have been a record even without $12B Saudi Arabia & $8.5B Mexico multi-tranche issuance. European Investment Bank (EIB) leads so far today with $6B 5Y SOFR:
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/07 $6B European Investment Bank (EIB) 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/07 $500M DBJ WNG 10Y SOFR+73
- 01/07 $Benchmark World Bank 7Y +54
- 01/07 $Benchmark ADB 3Y SOFR+31
- 01/07 $Benchmark CIBC 5Y SOFR+75a
- 01/07 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken 5Y
- 01/07 $Benchmark Ontario 5Y SOFR+60a
- 01/07 $Benchmark Santander 5Y +135a, 10Y +160a
- 01/07 $Benchmark Kexim 3Y +55a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +75a, 10Y +90a
- 01/07 $Benchmark SMFG 5.25Y +100, 5.25Y SOFR, 7Y +110a, 10Y +120a
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In Gilts Remains Intact
Jan-07 12:11
- In the FI space, the trend cycle in Bund futures remains bearish and last Friday’s sell-off plus Monday’s extension, reinforces this theme. Sights are on key support at 132.00, the Nov 6 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial resistance is seen at 133.48, last Friday’s high. Key short-term resistance is at 134.10, the 20-day EMA.
- The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent short-term gains appear to have been corrective. The recent breach of 91.87, the Dec 19 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 91.58 next, a 4.382 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial resistance is at 92.08, the Jan 2 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 93.16, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Put spread seller
Jan-07 12:03
ERG5 97.625/97.50ps 1x2, sold at 2.75 in 2.5k.
