OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gains In Oil Futures Appear Corrective
Jul-03 10:52
- On the commodity front, recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5, the May 29 low. The metal has recovered from Monday’s low and for now, this highlights a possible false trendline break. Stronger gains would refocus attention $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low.
- In the oil space, WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high. Wednesday’s gains - for now - appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.75. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.
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BOBL: Large Calendar Spread
Jun-03 10:51
Large Bobl Calendar Spread, Eurex rolls continue to dominate:
- OEM5/U5 bought for 101 in 50k.
BOE: MPC members: Scenarios have improved the discussions at MPC meetings
Jun-03 10:50
There's been a lot of discussion about the reforms in the Bernanke review with the extra scenarios and data warehouse being built by the BOE. All of the MPC members have said that the introduction of scenarios has improved the quality of the discussion on the MPC.
- Mann: "When we used to have a discussion of... the relationship between wages and the labour market is is not very strong, a flat Phillips Curve, so to speak, or it's very tight. We were just talking through words, because the model now allows [our staff] to physically go in there... and change that parameter, and we can see what the impact would be of my story versus your story on the slope of a key relationship that underlies inflation. This is part of the reason why we can have much more constructive debates about prospects for the underpinnings for the inflationary pressure, or the wage pressure and inflationary pressure, which then, you know, obviously immediately feeds into the monetary policy decision. So to me, this re, this re-estimation, also also marries some of the partial equilibrium research that's done and has been part of, in particular, my decision making over the last couple of years, and the macro economic model, and having that marriage between micro and macro is something that, in my view, strengthens the underpinnings of the decision making process."
BOE: Bailey and Breeden both note the HMRC and survey data help during LFS issue
Jun-03 10:39
- Bailey: "We're having to do more of that to compensate for the Labour Force Survey. So for instance, I mean, we're putting more weight, for instance, on the HMRC data in the area of employment, which obviously does give us a read on employment. We use other surveys. We say we use our own Agents. So yes, we are doing more in that field."
- Breeden: "I do think that's where the other data sources really come into play. So whilst being unable to rely on the LFS, we do have the data from HMRC about what's happening to employment, and speaking personally that and the survey data has been a helpful contributor to how I've thought about poilicy."
