OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Recovery Extends
Jan-22 11:28
- In FX, EURUSD is trading higher today. The latest recovery appears corrective, however, the pair has recently breached the 20-day EMA and pierced trendline resistance at 1.0383, drawn from the Sep 30 ‘24 high. The move higher has exposed the 50-day EMA at 1.0460. Clearance of this average would strengthen a bullish condition and open 1.0513, the Dec 18 high. Initial support lies at 1.0260, the Jan 15 low.
- A short-term bullish corrective cycle in GBPUSD remains in play, for now. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.2369, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear breach of the average would highlight a stronger corrective phase and signal scope for an extension, possibly towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2537. The bear trigger has been defined at 1.2100, the Jan 10 low. Clearance of this support would resume the downtrend.
- The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged and remains bullish. The latest pullback is considered corrective. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 155.00, the 50-day EMA, and 154.48, a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 high. A clear breach of both levels would highlight a stronger reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 158.87, the Jan 10 high.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Bear Threat Remains Present
Dec-23 11:28
- In FX, EURUSD has recovered off its recent lows, however, a bearish threat remains present. The move down last week paves the way for a test of key support at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of downtrend and open 1.0311, the 1.382 projection of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0501, the 20-day EMA.
- A bearish trend structure in GBPUSD remains intact and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Key support at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low, was pierced on Friday. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2446 next, the May 9 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance to monitor is 1.2811, the Dec 6 high. Initial resistance is 1.2670, the 20-day EMA.
- USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and last week’s strong gains reinforce current conditions. The breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 153.36, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
US TSYS: Busy Data, Treasury Auction Schedule Ahead
Dec-23 11:28
- Treasuries are looking modestly lower to start the new week, Christmas markets keeping volumes light (TYH5<175k). Early close Tuesday for Christmas Eve (1315ET), Wednesday full close for Christmas (Globex re-open at 1800ET), full sessions Thursday and Friday.
- Off last week's lows, the Mar'24 10Y contract currently trades -2.5 at 108-28.5, initial technical support at 108-16+ Low Dec 19 followed by 108-12+ (1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing).
- The trend condition in Treasury futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off reinforces the current bear cycle. Current 10Y yield +.0141 at 4.5363%, curves mildly steeper with 2s10s +.766 at 21.538, 5s30s +.024 at 34.387.
- Busy data and auction schedule ahead: Building Permits, Durable/Cap Goods and Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index at 0830ET; New Home Sales and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence at 1000ET.
- Shoe-horning in the Treasury supply with five auctions today: $81B 13W & $72B 26W bills at 1000ET; $48B 52W & $65B 42D CMB auctions at 1130ET; $69B 2Y notes (91282CME8) at 1300ET.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South
Dec-23 11:11
- RES 4: 112-02 Low Oct 14
- RES 3: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 110-28 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 110-03+ 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 108-29 @ 11:00 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 108-16+ Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 108-12+ 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
- SUP 3: 108-00 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
- SUP 4: 107-19+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The trend condition in Treasury futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off reinforces the current bear cycle. The contract has traded through key short-term support and the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 108+12+, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 110-03+, the 20-day EMA.
