OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• Treasuries trade bear flatter, with the front end paring some of yesterday’s gains as investors favor pricing a next 25bp cut in July and for now don't want to price in that much more than 75bp of cuts for 2025 as a whole.
• Risk sentiment was supported on early headlines of US-China trade talks scheduled in Switzerland for later this week. This was followed by PBoC easing but US equity futures and Tsy yields are subsequently off session highs.
• Cash yields are 0-3bp higher on the day, with increases led by 3s whilst 20s and 30s lag.
• 5s30s at 88bps is firmly off cycle highs of 100bps from May 1.
• TYM5 trades at 111-08+ (-01+) for close to yesterday’s highs of 111-12+, on another subdued overnight session with volumes at 230k despite no Japan holiday today.
• It hasn’t troubled resistance at 112-01+ (May 2 high) and the contract still trades close to recent lows, undermining the recent bull cycle. Support is seen at 110-27+ (May 6 low).
• Fed: FOMC announcement (1400ET), Chair Powell press conference (1430ET)
• Data: Weekly MBA mortgage data (0700ET), Consumer credit Mar (1500ET)
• Tsy Sec Bessent also sees day two of his Congressional testimony at 1000ET. 

• EUR/USD: $1.1400(E763mln)
• USD/JPY: Y142.50($804mln), Y143.00($595mln), Y143.20($746mln), Y145.50-55($1.1bln), Y145.85-00($1.6bln)
• EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8555-68(E501mln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6400(A$676mln), $0.6600(A$717mln)
• USD/CAD: C$1.3750-65825mln), C$1.3775-80($961mln)
• USD/CNY: Cny7.2000($500mln)

SX5E (16th May) 4650p, bought for 2.4 in 5k.